Gold & Silver, XAU & HUI: Additional Sell-off Still Likely.
09/01/21 INSIIDE Track – Gold & Silver plunged to major support (1680/GC & 22.27/SIU) after spiking higher into intermediate cycles on Aug 4 – as the XAU & HUI spiked to new 5 – 6 week highs (fulfilling their weekly cycle expectations) and reversed lower…
On Aug 9, Gold spiked down to 1680/GCZ – its lower range-trading target and the lows of early- and late-March – the most decisive level of support on a 3 – 6 month basis. For most of 2021, Gold has traded between 1680 – 1920, doing it in ~80.0/GC increments (1680 – 1760 – 1840 – 1920).
Silver spiked to new lows, dropping right to its overall ‘A-B-C’ wave target and 6 – 12 month support (and the reversal point for its weekly trend) – at 22.27 – 22.45/SIU. (On a continuous-contract basis, that support is at 21.96 – 22.00/SI.)…
Ultimately, Silver maintains the potential to drop back to at least 22.88/SIZ and set a low in sync with a ~6-month high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Sept/Oct ’21) Cycle Progression. A more precise 27 – 28 week high (Feb ’19) – high (Sept ’19) – low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – low (Mar ’21) – low (Oct 4 – 15) Cycle Progression could push that into the first half of Oct ’21.
As long as Silver sets a daily close below 23.16/SIZ and/or a weekly close below 23.16/SIZ at that time, it would fulfill that cycle…
The XAU turned down after spiking higher into weekly cycles on Aug 2 – 6 (the same time the HUI was forecast to set a lower high and then drop again). That projected a drop into Aug 19/20, along with most stocks. It did that while reaching its multi-month HHL objective at 125.87/XAU – created by the peak (167.09) and early-Aug high (146.48)…
On Aug 31, the monthly trend did not turn down so the XAU remains in a broad trading range – created by the range (low – high) of July – Aug ’20. That larger-magnitude congestion could extend through Sept and potentially into Oct ’21. The HUI is similar and could see a rebound to 270 – 275 before a drop into early-Oct ’21.
On a broader basis, the XAU has fulfilled what was forecast in 2016 and again in 2018 – 2019 – projecting a ’C’ wave advance into late-2020 :
9-18-18 Weekly Re-Lay: “The Gold/Silver Index (XAU) is one component that often tops early (2010) and bottoms late (2016). So, it is not surprising that it has spiked to new lows in early-Sept. 2018. That has also allowed it to come within ~1.5 points of its multi-year, 54 – 59.00/XAU downside price target – the ideal range for a bottom…
In the case of the XAU, the rally into Aug. 2016 is perceived to be the ’A’ wave of a larger-magnitude ’A-B-C’ corrective advance (that could last into 2020)…
IF this is the correct wave interpretation (multiple indicators will need to corroborate that), then the Gold/Silver Index could enter a new advance in 4Q 2018 (the onset of the ‘C’ wave rally) – one that is capable of lasting into late-2020/early-2021 and being related to the initial ’A’ wave advance of Jan. – Aug. 2016 (rally = rally?)…
A low in early-Sept. 2018 would also fulfill an over-arching ~180-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – low (Mar. ‘17) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Mar. ‘18) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Sequence AND a larger-degree ~360-degree high (Sept. ‘16) – high (Sept. ‘17) – low (Sept. ‘18) Cycle Progression…
Long-term cycles could produce the next multi-year peak in late-2020/early-2021. The greatest synergy of cycles occurs in 4Q 2020. That includes a recurring ~5-year cycle that dates back to early-1996 and late-2000. It would also fulfill a ~10-year low (4Q ‘00)- high (4Q ‘10) – high (4Q ‘20) Cycle Progression.”
That pair of cycle highs was soon honed to two specific months when the greatest synergy of cycles converged – Aug ‘20 & May ‘21. A peak in Aug ‘20 would perpetuate a ~47-month low (Oct. ’08) – high (Sept. ’12) – high (Aug. ’16) – high (Aug. ’20) Cycle Progression that was described in 2018 & 2019 as its latest bull market took hold.
A final peak in May ‘21 – which was forecast to be divergent among the metals’ complex (some metals or mining shares setting higher highs while others set lower highs) – fulfilled a 31 – 32 month low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was the final stage of that forecast and was fulfilled with the XAU’s high close on May 17 ‘21.
Both peaks were set at similar levels with the May ‘21 peak barely exceeding the Aug ‘20 peak and never giving a weekly close above it. As a result, both highs fulfilled contrasting cycles and created a classic ‘double top’. That could, and should, trigger a ~50% correction (of the 2018 – 2021 rally from ~60 to ~167/XAU) – taking the XAU down to a powerful convergence of support at 110 – 115.0.”
Gold & Silver are fulfilling the outlook for 2021 with Silver focused on cycle lows in late-Sept/early-Oct ’21. A 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom at that time would fulfill multiple cycles and potentially set the low of a ‘c’ wave decline… ushering in the time for a new rally into 1Q ’22.
The XAU fulfilled major cycle highs in Aug ’20 and May ’21 and is expected to drop toward ~115.00/XAU as part of this initial decline. With HUI cycles bottoming in early-Oct ’21, gold and silver mining shares are likely to follow Silver cycles and decline into that time frame.
How Does Gold’s Uncanny Range Trading Sequence Fit In? What does this mean for the next multi-month cycle high in ~Feb. ’22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.