Gold, Silver, XAU & Bitcoin Reinforce New Currency War; Pivotal Low = Aug 14 – 25, ‘23.
06-28-23 – “Bitcoin and Ether continue to validate major cycle lows set in 2022 and the downside objectives reached at that time… as well as the subsequent upside targets detailed since then.
From a broader perspective, they – along with Gold & Silver (but at alternating times) – are reinforcing the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in 2022. Nov ’22 – exactly 1 year (360-degree cycle) from when cryptos and many stocks peaked in Nov ’21 – ushered in that new phase.
At that time, the Dollar Index broke multi-month support and signaled that a 6 – 12 month peak was in place. While at least one reliable cycle argues for a retest of the 2022 peak (in 2023), a myriad of key upside objectives were met in 2022… ushering in the beginning of the end of a ~14 year advance in the Dollar Index.
With that peak, the Dollar Index fulfilled major upside price targets at 110 – 113/DX and reached the ideal upside wave objective for a wave ‘5’ peak. The Dollar Index reached those targets while completing a ~7-Year Cycle from an initial peak (double top) in 2015, two ~7-Year Cycles from the bottom in 2008, and three ~7-Year Cycles from the previous peak in 2001.
As stated then, that left very little remaining upside price potential for the Dollar Index’ overall bull market. That ushered in a window of opportunity for anti-Dollar instruments – like Gold & Bitcoin – to rally, with both of them bottoming in Nov ’22 at the same time the Dollar Index began a rapid sell-off.
Since the Nov ’22 low in Bitcoin, it has traced out a textbook wave structure while also adhering to the ideal scenario for a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence (see above chart). The latest and most precise phase came on June 14 – 16, ‘23. To set the stage…
Prior to its final low, Bitcoin rebounded to its declining weekly 21 High MAC and then gave a final exhaustive decline as it attacked multi-year support (and the downside target for a bursting bubble).
The arrow on the far left pinpoints that action. In Jan ’23 (2nd arrow from left), Bitcoin rallied and closed above its flattening weekly 21 High MAC… reinforcing that a multi-month bottom was intact. It rallied and then pulled back to the 21 MAC in March (3rd arrow from left) while testing and holding intermediate support near 20,000/BT.
Based on the synergy of multiple indicators and wave objectives, it was then projected to surge to ~30,000, pull back to ~25,000 (where its previous Feb ’23 high AND its Aug ’22 high were set) and then rally…
Bitcoin fulfilled that on June 14/15 while maintaining its intra-year uptrend AND preventing the weekly trend from turning down… a trio of bullish indicators. It dropped right to its rising weekly 21 Low MAC and reversed higher, helping to trigger a new 1 – 2 month buy signal on the June 16 close.
In the process, its mid-June ‘23 low fulfilled a 26 – 28-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that dates back to the Nov ’21 peak… and a more recent 14 – 15-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
That type of weekly buy signal projected – at the very least – a rally back to the previous high (the April ‘23 peak around 31,000/BT), which was quickly fulfilled, and a likely new 1 – 2 month rally that could easily match the magnitude of the most recent rally (Mar/Apr ‘23)…
At the same (overall) time this was occurring, Gold was also tracing out a multi-month advance that was projected to initially peak in early-May ’23 (and then later, in late-Oct/early-Nov ’23). Gold experienced the lion’s share of its initial surge from early-Nov into Jan 13, ‘23 – as the Dollar Index was plunging and Bitcoin was bottoming (a x b = c; Rock, Paper, Scissors).
After a ~$300/OZ surge in Gold, it entered a congestion phase as Bitcoin surged and experienced the lion’s share of its initial advance (Jan 12 – 26, ’23), immediately after. The Dollar Index rebounded in Feb as Gold & Bitcoin corrected… right on schedule.
That alternating battle reinforces the algebraic nature of the relationship between fiat, hard, & digital currency – a x b = c. It is likely to continue surrounding future cycles in Bitcoin (mid-July, mid-Sept & mid-Nov ’23), Gold (late-Aug/early-Sept & late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23) and the Dollar Index (in particular, mid-to-late-Aug ’23).
These are likely the opening salvos in a new battle against the aging and deteriorating US Dollar that should become more pronounced in 2024 – 2026…
The Dollar perpetuated a ~10-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression with last week’s low and continues to build further (future) cycle synergy in Aug ’23, with a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression converging on Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
If the recent low holds, the Dollar Index would complete successive rallies of 7 weeks each (c = a rebounds) on Aug 7 – 14, ’23. It would also complete a .618 rebound in time (28 weeks down/17 weeks up) if it rallied into Aug 7 – 14, ’23.
This, too, appears to play into the ‘interplay’ between Bitcoin, Gold & the Dollar with alternating cycle extremes… and the real moves unfolding in between.
The Euro is, inversely, signaling that a secondary top is more likely at this time. It rebounded to its declining weekly 21 High MAC while neutralizing its weekly downtrend for the second time (after spiking up to its intermediate target at 1.1060/ECU).
Looking out a little, the Euro has converging cycles in Aug ’23 that are likely to time a low when a 45 – 46-week high-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression recurs on Aug 7 – 18, ‘23.
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month corrective phases, selling off after fulfilling multi-month cycles that projected a decisive peak on May 3 – 5. Those highs fulfilled ~3-month low-high-(high) and ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progressions in Gold & Silver, respectively, while testing upside price targets at 2060 – 2080/GC & 26.50/SI.
That ushered in one of the two important cycle highs in 2023, the other expected in late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. Following the early-May peak, both declined with Silver reversing its weekly trend down, bouncing, and then resuming its decline. That turned their weekly trends down, ushering in the time for a reactive rebound followed by a new wave down.
Silver has twice neutralized its daily downtrend, while rebounding, and needs a daily close above 23.34/SIU to turn that trend up. Gold would not even turn its daily trend neutral until a daily close above 1949/GCQ.
The XAU & HUI remain negative and expected to drop back to (or below) their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI. A low is most likely in late-Aug ’23 – the fulfillment of an uncanny ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver remain below the lows set while fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce – that is ultimately projected to stretch into the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge.
The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 15 – 18, ’23). Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! A strong rally could begin in the second half of Aug ’23 and last into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23.
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.