Gold/Silver/XAU Reinforcing Projections for March/April Surges; Middle East Escalation?
03-11-24 – “Gold & Silver are surging after Silver held intra-year trend support for 6 consecutive weeks as Gold completed a larger-magnitude ‘a-b-c’ correction from the early-Dec ’23 spike high… and then both triggered new buy signals in mid-February.
Gold is validating the bullish weekly & monthly 21 MAC scenario that had developed in January & February, projecting a breakout surge in March.
Based on multiple wave objectives (rally from Oct ’23 low = Oct ’22 – May ’23 rally; rally from Feb ’24 low = Oct – Dec ’23 rally, etc.), Gold is still likely to see a surge to ~2300/GCJ as part of its latest primary advance.
That is also a pair of long-term wave objectives and would allow the current advance (from Sept/Oct 2022) to double the magnitude of the 2015 – 2018 advance and be .786 (2DGR) the magnitude of the 2018 – 2020 rally.
Additionally, April Gold has traded in consistent ~150.0/GCJ ranges since November 2022, with parameters at ~1850, ~2000 & ~2150/GCJ. If it breaks out to the upside, as expected, the next range trading target would be ~2300.0/GCJ.
With Gold’s action of last week (surging to its weekly LHR and closing above that level), it could reach ~2300/GCJ in the next 1 – 2 weeks. That is reinforced by the fact it closed above its early-December peak on a contract basis.
Silver reversed the weekly trend up, further confirming that a multi-month bottom is likely intact. That also generated a range-trading signal with targets at ~25.25 & ~26.75/SIK.
Silver turned its weekly 21 MAC up last week and then closed above that rising 21 High MAC this past week – reinforcing the unfolding upward reversal.
A weekly close above 24.56/SIK would magnify developing strength, allowing Silver to turn its intra-year trend up. That would likely spur a surge to ~27.25/SIK – where several extreme (intermediate) upside targets converge…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders and investors could have entered/added to long positions in Gold & Silver around 2025/GCJ & 23.00/SIK and can now risk daily closes below the March 1st lows. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The XAU & HUI surged higher, confirming the outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signals they generated on March 1st after retesting their October ’23 lows in late-February. Those recent lows added validation to the 12.5 – 13.5-month cycle that bottomed in October ’23 and projected a new 7 – 9 month advance to follow.
They were/are poised to surge in the first half of March ‘24, in sync with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.
That is what is now taking place.
The action of the past 4 weeks has been similar to the weeks leading into and beyond early-March 2023, as the XAU embarked on a 5-week surge.
In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later. In 2023, that subsequently led to an initial surge of ~16.00/XAU points during the first 7 trading days and then an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.
2024 was projected to see something similar.
The most bullish thing the XAU could do in March is to rally and close the month above 126.30/XAU. That would turn the intra-year trend up (closing above the January ’24 high) at the same time it is closing above its descending monthly 21 High MAC.
If that occurs, the monthly 21 High MAC would almost assuredly turn up in April ’24 – a textbook reversal sequence – since the inversely-correlated 21 High MARC plunges to 114.97/XAU in April ’24.
On a 1 – 2 week basis, the XAU is showing a chance for a surge to 134 – 138.00 that would powerfully confirm the buy signal triggered at 106.00 down to 102.60/XAU. That is where extreme upside targets exist in the coming week(s) and is where the monthly 21 High MARC exists in March 2024.
1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 106.00 down to 102.60 in late-February in line with the strategy published at that time. Risk/exit on a daily close below 111.90/XAU. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil rallied into early-March with Crude turning its weekly trend up – reinforcing the likelihood for additional upside… could be volatile and could still time an external ‘surprise’.”
Gold & Silver are confirming their mid-February ’24 lows and subsequent buy signals – projecting acceleration higher in March/April 2024… and beyond. The current advance is projected to take Gold above 2300/GCJ with Silver & the XAU targeting related levels.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for 2024! Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and is fulfilling projections to break out to the upside in March 2024!
Related cycles reinforce the likelihood for escalation of Middle East War Cycles in 2024 – with a new escalation of Iran vs Israel conflict likely to spur gains in Gold & Silver. Watch the first month of the Natural Year – from ~March 20 into April 19/20 – as the most likely time for escalation of tensions in the Middle East. (The March 2024 INSIIDE Track recently elaborated.)
A 180-degree move from the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel arrives in early-April ’23… a cyclically likely time for a new attack of some form.
How Does Gold Outlook Portend Related Shocks in Other Key Markets??
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside (in 2024) following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
The Bridge: Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion Dilemma & Demise
40-Year Cycle – Currency Wars & Cryptos
Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.