Natural Gas Projecting Late-May/Early-June ’23 Major Bottom; 3Q ’23 = Key!
04-28-23 – “Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil sold off after fulfilling cycle highs on April 10 – 14 ‘23 – the convergence of a myriad of weekly cycles as well as a ~10-month low (Oct ’20) – low (mid-Aug ’21) – high (mid-Jun ’22) – (high; mid-April ‘23) Cycle Progression. Crude also fulfilled an ~11-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression linked to previous highs in June, Aug & Nov ’22 and Jan ’23.
Along with overlapping 22-week & ~44-week cycles, this ~11-week cycle had been projecting a rally into April 10 – 14, ’23 (in sync with a related 74 – 77-day high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the XOI Index) and subsequent sell-off.
Crude fulfilled that while failing to turn its intra-year trend up, reinforcing the likelihood for an intermediate peak. It would take a weekly close below 73.25/CLM, however, to turn the intra-year trend down. Until that occurs, congestion is in effect…
Natural Gas has plunged back to long-term support (~2.000/NG), completing a full cycle and full wave structure after peaking in line with an ~8.25-year high-high-high-(high 2Q/3Q ‘22), an ~11-month high-high-high-(high; Aug 2022) AND an over-arching 22 – 23 month high-high-high-(high; Aug/Sept 2022) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the peak of its 2-year bull market. This overall decline could extend into late-May/early-June – the next phase of a ~90-degree cycle.”
Energy markets are moving through a multi-month bottoming phase – based on cycles and price indicators – when a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom has been expected. That could/should prompt an overall rally into 3Q ’23 (Sept ’23 = ideal time) – when multiple, long-term cycles collide. Weekly cycles in Crude (that pinpointed an intermediate high on April 10 – 14, ’23) project a future intermediate low for late-June ’23. as Natural Gas cycles project a Major bottom in late-May/early-June ’23. Cycles turn very bullish in 3Q ‘23.
The March 17, 2023 issue of The Bridge – Crude, Natural Gas & the XOI Index details key factors to monitor as energy markets head into cycle lows (Natural Gas cycles do not bottom until June ’23) and begin to embark on new advances… that should accelerate into Aug/Sept ’23.
Does this Have Anything to Do with Geopolitical Factors?
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Refer to the March 17, 2023 issue of The Bridge – Crude, Natural Gas & the XOI Index (FREE with any Weekly Re-Lay subscription of 1 month or longer) for expanded analysis that addresses key aspects of the 2023 outlook for energy markets.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.