NQ-100 Reinforcing ~13,800/NQ Upside Target.
02/28/23 INSIIDE Track – “Stock Indices initially fulfilled the outlook for another surge to begin 2023, with the NQ-100 finally in a position to take the lead. Just as the DJIA had done in 4Q ‘22, the Nasdaq-100 surged exactly 20% (10,751 – 12,949/NQH) – fulfilling that aspect of the outlook for stock indexes.
Throughout 4Q ‘22, the DJIA was forecast to surge from below 29,000 to above 34,400 – perpetuating and fulfilling a 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycle that projected a ~20% surge in 4Q ‘22 – similar to what was seen in 1998 and 1974. Other indexes were expected to follow.
That cycle included double-digit, 4th quarter gains in 1962, 1974, 1986, 1998, 2010 and now 2022. It also included 20% or greater 4th quarter gains in 1974, 1998 and now 2022 – perfectly fulfilling both the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles.
The DJIA fulfilled that and has been in a corrective mode ever since. If it can spike down to ~32,203/DJIA, the Dow would complete a ‘c = a’ pullback (decline = decline) and set the stage for a new rally. The DJTA mimicked the DJIA in late-2022, surging ~24% in 4Q ‘22. After a late-year pullback, it surged another 20% in 1Q ‘23.
In similar fashion, the Russell 2000 underwent a pair of rallies (4Q ‘22 & 1Q ‘23) and finally reached that 20% gain threshold with its early-Feb ‘23 peak. The S+P 500 did the same, undergoing a pair of rallies and reaching the 20% gain threshold in early-Feb.
That has triggered multi-week sell-offs with most indexes remaining in weekly uptrends (not even neutralizing those trends). In many cases, they have pulled back to their rising weekly 21 High MACs – a critical level of ascending support that helps gauge the relative strength of an uptrend…
This pullback also fulfills what was discussed last month – regarding the NQ-100 likely peaking within 1 – 2 weeks of its weekly trend turning up (a lagging/confirming indicator). That peak typically leads to a 1 – 3 week reactive sell-off before a subsequent rally to new highs. A low is most likely on March [reserved for subscribers]…
The Coming Weeks
The NQ-100 should rally to at least ~13,200 and potentially to 13,500 – 13,800– the mid-Aug ‘22 high and corroborating upside targets. That would also represent a doubling of the Oct/Nov ’22 rally and a doubling of the Jan ’23 rally – two examples of potential range-trading. That would also represent a precise 50% rebound of the 2021/22 sell-off.
The S+P 500 is still capable of reaching ~4300/ES before a ‘B’ wave rally peaks. That is where the mid-Aug ‘22 peak overlaps the July – Oct ‘21 lows (support turned into resistance) and is just below where the monthly 21 MAC is peaking and flattening… If a low is set this week, it would fulfill a 10-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression) and a related ~20-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… and project a new rally.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month/1 – 2 year traders and investors should have exited long positions in early-Sept ‘21. 1 – 2 month traders were triggered into longs in mid-Oct & exited them in early-Dec. Early-Jan ‘23 triggered the latest bullish period.”
Stock indexes are fulfilling 4-Shadow Signals (triggered in 4Q ’22) that projected new surges in 1Q ’23. Indexes like the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 attacked their upside price targets (accomplishing what the DJIA did in 4Q ’22) while the NQ-100 and S+P 500 are projecting higher levels (~13,800/NQ & ~4300/ES) before their advances would have a better chance of peaking.
Those upside targets – and how/when they are reached – should reveal a great deal about what to expect leading into key cycles in late-July/early-Aug ’23. In the interim, stocks are fulfilling the potential for a multi-week pullback (from early-Feb) before a second surge becomes likely.
What Did/Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
How High Could Latest Rallies Reach?
What Would Likely Follow Tests of ~13,800/NQ & ~4300/ES?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.