Oil Markets Remain Bullish; Watch mid-April
Oil Markets Remain Bullish; Watch mid-April.
03/31/18 INSIIDE Track:
“Crude Oil – Multi-year trend slowly turning up after fulfilling cycle low in early-2016 – the convergence of monthly & yearly cycles. Cycles turned bullish in 3Q ‘17 and could spur additional upside into 3Q 2018…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have consolidated since fulfilling the 3 – 6 month & 1 – 2 year outlooks projecting a surge into/through Jan. 2018. That was projected to create a multi-month (1 – 2 month minimum) peak in line with diverse monthly cycles.
They fulfilled that and corrected into mid-Feb., testing crucial wave support while neutralizing their weekly uptrends multiple times (but not turning those trends down).
That weekly trend pattern, combined with weekly 21 MAC support and the testing & holding of respective ’4th waves of lesser degree’ wave support projected a rally to new highs.
Crude has fulfilled that while also perpetuating an 8 – 9 week high-high-high-high Cycle Progression. Combined with daily cycles, that projected a peak on March 26 – 28 with an upside price target (‘rally = rally’ objective) at 66.13/CLM.
Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are lagging and have not yet fulfilled their weekly trend patterns by retesting the Jan. highs. That reinforces the significance of that January peak and corroborates future cycles linked to that.
Looking out over the next 6 – 12 months, a decisive turning point is expected in 3Q 2018. Starting from the larger cycles and working down, the governing 1 – 3 year cycle is a 27 – 30 month cycle that has impacted Crude since July 2006, its penultimate high. 30 months later, Crude set a major bottom in Jan. 2009.
It then rallied for 27 – 28 months (into April/May ‘11) and subsequently set its Aug. 2013 peak another 27 – 28 months later. From there, it plummeted for 29 – 30 months, bottoming in Feb. 2016. 28 – 30 months later is June – August 2018. If you look at this entire cycle from a quarterly basis, 3Q 2018 is the target cycle…
Overriding that is a ~5-year high – high cycle (3Q ‘08 – 3Q ‘13) that also targets 3Q 2018 – most likely for a peak. Underlying it is a 15 – 16 month low (1Q ‘16) – low (2Q ‘16) Cycle Progression that aligns in 3Q 2018. The ascent of that low – low cycle argues for 3Q ‘18 being a high.
…it is important to rely on more specific cycles and indicators. One of those is the 7-month low – low – high Cycle Progression that helped time the Jan. ‘18 peak. The next phase of that should also be a high – in Aug. 2018. A more precise 31-week low – low – low – high – (high) Cycle Progression pinpoints the final week of Aug. ’18 (Aug. 27 – 31) for that potential peak. That could be reinforced with an intermediate peak in mid-May – its midpoint. More to follow.
Natural Gas fulfilled multiple upside targets in late-Jan. as it rallied sharply from multi-year support near 2.500/NG up to 3.650+/NGG. That fulfilled multiple monthly/yearly cycles and projected a drop into April/May 2018. A low could occur on April 9 – 13 – the next phase of an 8-week high-low-low-low Cycle Progression.”
Crude Oil and the products have fulfilled monthly cycles that projected a 1 – 3 month peak to take hold in Jan. 2018. More recently, Crude spiked to new highs into late-March and set what is expected to be a 1 – 3 week peak in line with the latest phase of an 8 – 9 week high-high-high-high Cycle Progression (next phase is in late-May). The middle half of April is when both of those cycles are likely to give way to new highs as energy markets continue on an overall advance that could ultimately stretch into August 2018.
In the meantime, daily & weekly indicators should be followed and will provide more specific signals (and/or reveal if any changes are in the works). Natural Gas is arguing for a drop into April 9 – 13 before a rally takes hold. That could also be revealing when the entire energy complex would subsequently enter a more bullish phase.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.