Palladium & Gold Lead Bottoming Phase in Metals; XAU & Silver Should Follow.
Palladium & Gold Lead Bottoming Phase in Metals; XAU & Silver Should Follow.
09/18/18 The Bridge – Metals & Miners: What’s Ahead?: “The entire metals’ complex is at an inflection point. 3 – 6 month, 6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year downside price targets have been met.
Multi-month & multi-year support levels have held (in most cases).
Monthly & yearly cycles are bottoming.
All that synergy sets the stage for a decisive reversal higher.
But, price action must confirm!
With such a pivotal time unfolding, it is important to bring together the converging analyses in all these metals and see what it reveals for the coming months and years. In some cases, the current action could impact price movement stretching into 2021.
Since late-Jan. 2018, most metals markets have struggled to find support and gain their footing. Late-Jan./early-Feb. 2018 was when all of the metals markets were projected to set multi-month or multi-quarter peaks in line with a host of weekly, monthly and even yearly cycles.
Gold, Silver & the XAU Index fulfilled multi-month upside price objectives in late-Jan. – with the XAU surging precisely to its monthly extreme upside target – as Silver perpetuated a 7-month cycle, discussed throughout late-2017. (The next phase of that ~7-month cycle is late-Aug./early-Sept. 2018.)
Throughout much of the past year, another metal has led these decisive turning points and trends, often providing advanced notice of overall reversals in the making. That remains the case (and may be reinforced by today’s rally)…
In Jan. ‘18, Palladium fulfilled multi-year upside targets AND cycles that had projected a surge to ~1150/PA and into 1Q 2018, the recurrence of a 7-year and 3-5 year cycle, as well as monthly cycles. The Nov. & Dec. 2017 INSIIDE Tracks stated:
10-31-17 – “Palladium retested its Sept. ‘17 peak and remains in an all-out uptrend, increasing the likelihood for new highs in the coming weeks. Both a 7-year high-high cycle (from the Feb. 2011 peak) and an intervening 3.5 year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (from the Aug. ‘14 peak) project a multi-quarter high for 1Q 2018… ~1150.0/PA could be tested by then.
11-30-17 – “Palladium remains in an all-out uptrend & fulfilled the likelihood for new highs. Both a 7-year high-high cycle (from the Feb. 2011 peak) and an intervening 3.5 year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (from the Aug. ‘14 peak) project a multi-quarter high for 1Q 2018…
~1150.0/PA could be tested by then.
After surging into mid-Jan. and reaching 1133/PA, the Feb. 2018 INSIIDE Tracks concluded:
01-31-18 – “Palladium completed a 2-year advance from its mid-Jan. 2016 bottom, initially fulfilling cycles projecting a multi-quarter high in 1Q 2018. It came within a few points of its primary upside objective (~1150.0/PA) and within two weeks of perfectly fulfilling a 7-year high-high cycle and an intervening 3.5 year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
That could usher in a drop back to ~910.0/PA – the level of its previous high (now support).”
That occurred at the same time Copper had fulfilled multi-year upside objectives – in time and price (see chart on page 1 and corresponding analysis in the July 24, 2018 The Bridge) and was projected to plummet back to its ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support around 2.5000/HG.
Platinum also projected a peak for late-Jan./early-Feb. ‘18 and an ensuing sell-off. The synergy of converging cycles ushered in a bearish period.
Gold maintained more relative strength and was able to retest its late-Jan. peak and multi-year highs (the highest levels since the Dec. 2015 low) – in April 2018, even as most other metals set lower highs.
That fulfilled its prevailing weekly (up) trend pattern and ushered in a pivotal period leading into May 14 – 18, ‘18 – when intermediate cycles forecast a subsequent low. By that time, other metals had validated their 2018 outlooks and confirmed that larger-degree corrections were in store.
All that was exacerbated when Gold turned its weekly trend down in early-May – removing any positive influence and clarifying what was to be expected in mid-June, when the next multi-month cycle high had been anticipated. That weekly trend pattern made it clear that a lower high would be seen and a new wave down would emerge after mid-June.
That corroborated what had been projected in other metals markets – like Copper and the XAU. Both of those remained poised for substantial declines that were expected to last into 3Q 2018 – with significantly lower price objectives still to be achieved.”
Precious Metals enter time for a sequence of 1 – 2 year lows in Aug. – Nov. 2018. Gold provided the first bottom in Aug. ’18 (fulfilling its ~27-week cycle and holding pivotal support) and ushered in this transition period. After Nov. ’18, it should trigger a bullish period in precious metals – leading into late-Feb./early-Mar. ’19 (the next phase of Gold’s 27 – 29 week & 55 – 59 week cycles).
Gold stocks (XAU) are now following suit and preparing for a similar major bottom as they attack 1 – 2 year downside price targets and fulfill monthly & weekly cycle lows. Palladium is again leading the metals and should surge to new multi-year highs as part of developing advance. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.