Silver Set for Sharp Surge
Silver Set for Sharp Surge.
04/07/18 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver fulfilled cycle lows on April 5 – 9 and could now resume their uptrends…
There is one constructive thing that Silver has in common with Gold: it never turned its weekly trend down, despite correcting since late-Jan.
As long as Silver does not give a weekly close below 16.21/SIK, that will remain the case. Conversely, Silver would need to generate a weekly close above 16.825/SIK to re-enter its weekly uptrend and project a rally to new highs.
There is another developing positive for Silver (and Gold) – the weekly 21 MAC. While the direction of that channel has been down (in Silver, but not in Gold), Silver’s current price action has traded in and out of the lower channel (weekly 21 Low MAC).
Over the course of the next 3 – 4 weeks, the corresponding weekly 21 Low MARC will plummet from 16.995/SIK (in the coming week) to 15.86/SIK (for the week of April 30 – May 4).
Since that is the replacement level for the calculation of the weekly 21 Low MAC (the data point that is removed and replaced with the current week’s low), a dropping MARC can have a positive impact on the corresponding MAC.
[For example, if the 4/06 closing price of 16.36/SIK was the low for the coming week, it would be significantly lower than the 16.995/SIK level it is replacing… so the 21 Low MAC would continue descending.
However, if that same 16.36/SIK level was the low in early-May, it would be significantly higher than the 15.86/SIK level it was replacing… turning the weekly 21 Low MAC up.]
If Silver did nothing but trade sideways for four weeks, the underlying weekly 21 Low MAC would go from declining, to flattening, to turning up – even if the price of Silver never rallied.
That is why it is so important to be cognizant of not only the current MAC levels but also the direction and angle (steep or more lateral) of the replacement levels (MARC).
Another developing positive for Silver is that it has remained above its March 19 – 23 low. That low perpetuated a 13 – 14 week/~90-degree high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. In the ideal scenario, Silver would rally for about 2/3 of that cycle (~9 weeks from March 19 – 23) and then correct during the final 1/3 – into a higher low in the second half of June (June 18 – 29) – its next phase.
The current setup of Gold & Silver argues for [reserved for subscribers]
1 – 3 month traders should now risk a weekly close below 1314.3/GCM – or a daily close below 1309.3/GCM – on long Gold positions… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.
The XAU has consolidated since peaking on March 26 – 28, the latest phase of a 21 – 24 day/14 – 16 trading day Cycle Progression. The next phase – on April 16 – 18 – could produce another high.
It closed the week (again) inside its weekly 21 MAC and has a very good chance of turning that channel higher in the coming week since the weekly 21 High MARC is at 81.16 and the XAU closed at 81.54 on April 6. Its daily & weekly trends are arguing for new rallies. So, the XAU might finally be in a position to mount another decent rally…
Gold & Silver are now in a better position for a rally after Gold spiked to a new 1 – 2 week low – fulfilling its daily trend pattern AND fulfilling the cycle outlook for an intermediate low on April 5 or 6. Both rebounded on Friday and could see rallies into mid-April.
That could perpetuate the 20 – 21 day high-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression in Silver – that comes into play on April 16 – 17. Gold is in a good position to turn its daily 21 MAC back up on April 9, reinforcing this scenario …”
Silver is suddenly taking center stage and is in a position to see a sharp rally from April 9 into early-May – overlapping the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19) and Date of Aggression (April 19). Gold is similarly bullish but Silver’s cycles & indicators are set up to trigger an accelerated advance in the coming weeks – the culmination of projected multi-month advances into May 2018. Specific confirmation levels and price targets are and will be provided on an ongoing basis. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.