Solar Cycle 25 Begins with Intensifying Instability.
“Outlook 2020/2021 – A Dragon in a Corner…
06-29-20 – The coming months have the potential to see an escalating (and whipsawing) of tensions between the US and China as well as between China and the rest of the world (India, Asian countries in the South China Sea, Europe, etc.). Ultimately, that could result in some form of sharp repercussion from China, once they feel they are out of other options.
There are at least two cases where China’s ongoing actions could ultimately trigger global backlash. They are in Hong Kong and the South China Sea. China’s new Hong Kong national security law escalates its suppression of conflicting voices in Hong Kong (while lessening the ‘semi-autonomous’ status of that city).
But that is just one brewing conflict…
Recent attacks (either sinking or intimidating) against ships from Japan, Vietnam & Malaysia – by China in the South China Sea – have raised tensions in a strategic waterway. Suspected cyber-attacks against Australia, military aggression against India, and intimidation toward the Philippines have compounded the growing antagonistic nature of China toward many nations.
So, how can China placate some of the global backlash and delay any serious consequences?
Money.
The U.S. has been notably subdued in the response to these aggressive acts. According to some speculation, that is closely linked to a struggling reelection campaign (and at least one US/China bargain revealed in a recent book release).
So, there are likely to be signs of cooperation, particularly with the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China, to placate growing tensions and try to keep accusers at bay.
The last couple years have shown that Xi Jinping knows how to ‘play’ the US administration to his advantage whenever things are getting a little too confrontational.
John Bolton’s recent book release is the latest revelation of a recurring theme expressed by 4-star generals, multiple world leaders, and past administration officials – explaining that it can be very easy to manipulate this administration with token maneuvers or just plain flattery.
If that speculation is accurate (others can continue to debate that), the following 2020 ‘dots’ might be more closely connected than initially thought…
– China agrees to purchase increased amount of US soybeans as part of Phase One deal.
– Trump repeatedly goes on record – before and after deal is struck – emphasizing this is key to his reelection strategy to win over heartland farmers.
– Bolton’s book corroborates that exact message and recounts conversations between Jinping and Trump in which Trump tells Xi he needs to buy more soybeans to help Trump’s re-election.
Is this just the ranting of a disgruntled ex-employee?
– China agrees but does little, in first 4 – 5 months of 2020, to fulfill that promise. Why? It is certainly not for lack of need, since they purchased large amounts of Brazilian soybeans during that time.
– Immediately before and after China takes assertive moves with Hong Kong – which are a bold step and quickly spurred outrage from US Senators on both sides of the aisle – China ramps up soybean purchases to assuage President Trump.
– As a result, little is said publicly to hold China accountable for this latest maneuver.
– Is there a connection?
If so, look for soybean purchases and other ’incentives’ to be used as manipulative fodder in the coming months, as China continues to intensify its aggressive movements in key areas around the globe – while hoping to delay US reactions until it is too late…”
Solar Cycle 25, which began in Dec ’19, is forecast to be much stronger than what the experts have been saying. Since the mid-2010’s, INSIIDE Track has detailed why 2021 – 2025 should be an unstable time in the markets, in interest rates and inflation** (inflation forecast to surge from mid-2020 into 3Q ’22 while interest rates are forecast to rise from 3Q ’20 into 2Q ’23), in geopolitical turmoil (War Cycles return in late-2021 – late-2025), and geophysical instability (earthquake cycles rising throughout this period and coinciding with volcanic cycles colliding in 2022 – ’24). China is likely to play a key role in some of these factors. **Commodity prices are a key component in that and are directly impacted by solar activity.
That period was forecast – since 2009 and again in 2014 – 2016 – to be preceded by the recurrence of Disease Cycles, colliding in 2019/2020. [See https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/11YC-Stock-Panics-Global-Shaping-Events-1.pdf & https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2016-The-Golden-Year-III.pdf] Extreme lows in solar activity have often coincided with major disease/viral outbreaks… and this time appears to be no different.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.