Stock Index (& AI Stock) Sell Signals Project Sell-off into ~April 19th (Date of Aggression).
03/30/24 – “Stock indexes have all (three primary & three secondary indexes) fulfilled their 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year upside targets at the same time the Russell 2000 fulfilled its weekly trend pattern & is trying to signal a top… indicating their advances (since late-2022) are living on borrowed time.
Along with many leading stocks (including TSLA & AAPL, which have been dropping all year), the indexes have been setting a series of divergent peaks since December 2023.
All of the primary indexes (DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100) and all of the secondary indexes (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400) we follow have now fulfilled multi-year upside price objectives.
The last of these 6 to accomplish that feat was/is the S+P Midcap – which has just attacked its multi-year upside targets (that extend up to 3045/IDX).
A newer ‘proxy stock’ (NVDA) – the driving force behind the 1Q ’24 rally – has also fulfilled multiple upside targets converging near 950. That fulfills key range-trading targets, LLH objectives & the extreme upside price target (LHR) for 2024. It was projected to set a high on March 25th, which was just fulfilled while setting its highest daily close at 950.02!
At the same time, the NQ-100 has traded sideways after surging into late-February ’24 – the fulfillment of an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle and setting its highest daily close on March 1st – one day after that ~2-month cycle peak.
It needs a daily close below 18,200/NQM to turn neutral and a daily close below 18,006/NQM to turn its 2 – 4 week trend negative. A drop below 18,070/ NQM would turn the direction of the daily 21 MAC down. (On April 2, it would only need to drop below 18,273. On April 3… below 18,479/NQM.)…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders should be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction. The remaining upside potential appears very limited as the downside risk escalates.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have attacked multi-year upside targets as they complete one Natural Year and begin another. The first ‘month’ of Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times significant shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets, likely accelerating to the downside in mid-April.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th… the culmination of this transition period. The key will be what occurs during that (projected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame not long after (when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). AI-related stocks are reinforcing this. NVDA just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could see a sharp correction into April 19th… and potentially beyond (if one key indicator turns negative by/on April 19th). Its first downside target is 750 – 765/NVDA.
What Would Trigger a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.