Stock Index (Feb 11/12th & 25th) Sell Signals: Precursors to Recession/Stagflation in 2026?
02-27-26 – “Stock Indices are going through a pivotal topping process that could/should see its first solid validation by mid-March ’26. The Weekly Re-Lay just triggered a sell signal on Feb 25th – in the S+P 500 and all related indexes. It was first detailed in the Feb 21st Weekly Re-Lay and then triggered when the S+P 500 hit 6974/ESH…
02-25-26 – “Stock Indices continue to trace out a topping phase that has been led by the NQ-100 (which peaked in late-Oct ’25) and has recently been joined by the S+P 500 and then the DJIA… As described last week, the DJIA set up a unique potential for the final 5 trading days of the month (this week) – when a new sell-off was/is an increasing probability… A late-Feb drop below 48,673/DJIA is needed to complete that pattern…
The S+P 500… should set another high on Feb 25/26th (now), the latest phase of a ~10 trading-day high (Oct 15) – high (Oct 29) – high (Nov 12) – high (Nov 26+) – high (Dec 11) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – high (Feb 11) – (high; Feb 26, ’26) Cycle Sequence that has timed a peak every 10 trading days since Oct 15th…
Feb 25/26th is also the midpoint of an overarching 19 – 20 trading-day high (Nov 12) – high (Dec 11) – high (Jan 12) – high (Feb 10/11) – (low; March 11/12, ’26) Cycle Progression…
The DJIA daily trend reversal added another key index to the growing number of those now in daily downtrends (or down/neutral trends). That list now includes the DJIA, S+P 500, NQ-100 & Russell 2000… 1 – 4 week traders can be entering short positions in e-mini S+P futures at 6974…” – Feb 25, ‘26 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
That was/is expected to trigger a sharp drop into the middle half of March ‘26 – the first in a series of important Cycle Progression lows in 2026. The NQ-100 – which is still leading this downturn – would fulfill a 15 – 16-week high-low-low-low-(low; March 2 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression if it moved lower into/through the first half of March ’26.
(That ~16-week cycle is linked to overarching monthly cycles that all converge in July ’26 and identify a more significant period of time when a more significant bottom could be seen.)
A drop into March 9 – 16, ’26 would perpetuate that Cycle Progression and complete a ~19-week decline from its late-Oct ’25 peak. That is the same duration of decline that most indexes completed in early-April ’25 – after dropping for ~19 weeks from late-Nov ’24 (wave symmetry). It would also complete a .618 retracement in time, in the NQ-100.
The DJIA & S+P 500 corroborated that outlook.
NQ-100 Topping Process
The NQ-100 has been leading a topping process and is tracing out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence that was expected to usher in a Feb/Mar ‘26 decline – most likely culminating (potentially in dramatic fashion) around mid-March.
The Nasdaq-100 set a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – fulfilling a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly and even multi-year cycles and timing objectives. On a multi-year basis, that Oct ’25 peak completed the 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market (wave timing) symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 fulfilled its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression as it was peaking.
The NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month top and weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence while increasing the synergy of multi-month downside targets near 23,250/NQH. That 21 MAC sequence was powerfully reinforced – during the month of February – with a weekly close below the 21 Low MAC and a reversal down of its direction.
Not surprisingly, NVDA – one of the primary tech & AI darlings – has been tracing out a similar pattern and is likely to confirm it on the Feb 27th close. The S+P 500 is also tracing out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence but needs a weekly close below 6840/ESM as a confirming signal.
17-Year Cycle
2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the culmination of the previous (related) 17-Year Cycle stock market decline in 2009. There is a good chance another 30 – 50% decline could occur – and/or already be unfolding in many key stocks – in 2026… a second fulfillment of that uncanny cycle.
Since the late-Oct ‘25 peak, related stocks have plunged – many of them already fulfilling the outlook for a new 25 – 50% decline in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines. They include:
MSFT – Down 31+%
AMZN – Down 24+%
META – Dropped ~27%
AMD – Down ~29%
NFLX – Down ~40%
NVDA – Down ~20%
ORCL – Down 60+% (since Sept ‘25)
TSLA – Down ~22% from late-Dec into early-Feb
And not to be missed, the stock that was forecast to lead/trigger ‘eerie parallels’ in the market – MSTR – has lost ~77% since its July ‘25 peak and 80+% from its Nov ‘24 peak. It appears the crypto/AI bubble – or at least its ‘over-exuberance’ – is having a reality check… right on schedule.
17-Year Cycle II
There is another 17-Year Cycle that is related to this and is also worth reiterating…
2Q 2026 (~June ’26) is a full 17-Year Cycle from the culmination of the 2008/2009 recession. Cyclically speaking, there is a good chance for the onset of a new phase of recession – potentially mixed with stagflation – around that time.
Stock market action often precedes these occurrences since stocks typically anticipate economic events months in advance (and defining a recession is a lagging, slower-moving affair).
That could also dovetail with interest rate cycles that portend a spike low in rates (high in Bonds & Notes) leading into mid-2026. Hmmm.
As reiterated last issue:
That brings us back to the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War that has been a focus of INSIIDE Track discussions for over a decade. It was projected to usher in a dramatic shift beginning in 2022, immediately after the culmination of the final years of the preceding 40-Year Cycle – in 2016 – 2021.
Prior to and since 2022, INSIIDE Track has repeatedly explained why this new phase should see the ‘demise’ – to one extent or another – of the US Dollar as global currency kingpin.
2025/2026 was projected to usher in a dramatic phase of that new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War – as reinforcing 17-Year Cycles joined forces.
One of those had to do with economic recessions and the likelihood for the next phase to include Stagflation. 17 years from 2009/2010 is 2026/2027 and the time when that challenge was/is likely to emerge and impact our economy. Along with that, there were other inflation-related 17-Year Cycles.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12-month traders and investors can be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a 1Q ‘26 sell-off.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th. The S+P 500 is leading the latest reversal and generated an additional sell signal on Feb 25th. A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 is projected… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26. (Will mid-2026 Fulfill Related Analysis??)
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals and the initial high in late-Jan ’26. The Middle East is likely to be the catalyst.
That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
How Did Feb 25th Sell Signal Reinforce Feb 11/12th Sell Signals?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For Plunge into March ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.