Stock Index Feb ’26 Sell Signals Project Sharp Plunges into March 9 – 13th!
03-07-26 – “Stock indexes continue to trace out a topping phase that has been led by the NQ-100 (which peaked in late-Oct ’25). That was/is expected to trigger a much larger sell-off (than what was seen in recent weeks) leading into mid-March ’26, which is currently unfolding. The weekly 21 MACs are turning down (in DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100) but need to be confirmed by weekly trends turning down.
Bonds & Notes fulfilled near-term cycle highs and sold off as the Dollar surged. Gold & Silver are in limbo as Grain markets surge into March 6 – 13th Cycle Progressions. Energy markets also surged…
Stock Indices fulfilled minimum downside objectives in a few cases with the DJIA reaching its initial (minimum) downside target at ~47,700 as it dropped to its rising weekly 21 Low MAC (47,635/DJIA) and then the weekly HLS (47,459/ DJIA) – reinforcing the outlook for next week.
That fulfilled the minimum 2 – 4 week target for what was described since its Feb 11th peak & reversal lower… while reinforcing the broader outlook for additional downside in March ’26. As the DJIA was testing that initial target, the S+P 500 was stretching to its weekly HLS (extreme weekly downside target) at 6725/ESH – AND its initial monthly support level (also at 6725/ESH).
Reinforcing that, the NQ-100 kept its weekly 21 Low MAC heading down – by dropping below 24,400 (weekly 21 Low MARC). This overall decline could still see additional new lows before mid-month.
The test of the weekly HLS in the S+P 500 portends an impending low in the next 1 – 2 weeks – aligning with Cycle Progressions. The S+P 500 (& DJIA) joined the NQ-100 in closing below its weekly 21 Low MAC on March 6th and needs to drop below 6680/ESM in order to turn the 21 Low MAC direction down.
Pivotal support should be initially found at 6636 – 6650/ESM, where the Nov ’25 low and the coming week’s LLS (often hit in the week after an HLS is hit) converge. More significant support is at [reserved for subscribers]…
Many stocks & indexes have initially fulfilled projections for a decline into the first two weeks of March ‘26 – that would fulfill a 15 – 16-week high-low-low-low-(low; March 2 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression – but have been expected to extend those into the coming week and complete a ~19-week NQ-100 decline from its late-Oct ’25 peak and a .618 retracement in time.
Stock indices remain weak and expected to drop to lower lows in the coming week. The DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2K & IDX have turned their intra-month trends down, reinforcing that outlook.
1 – 4 week traders could be holding short positions in e-mini S+P futures at the equivalent of 7026 – 7035/ESM, after rolling into the June contract. Move risk/exit stops on an intraday rally above 6911/ESM or a daily close above 6887/ESM. Exit (take profits on)… if/when 6671/ESM is hit. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The Dollar Index resumed its rally after pulling back to its rising daily 21 High MAC on Feb 23rd – 27th. This rally could extend into the coming week, rebounding .618 of its Nov – Jan ’26 decline and fulfilling a ~16-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
From a broader perspective, a peak in March ’26 would fulfill a ~14-month high-high-high-(high; March ’26) Cycle Progression and a 7 – 7.5-month high-high-high-high-high-(
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have continued to surge after fulfilling analysis for a major low in Jan ’26 – when a 9 – 10-month high-high-high-low-(low; Jan ’26) Cycle Progression and an ~8-month low-low-low-low-low-(low; Jan ’26) Cycle Sequence bottomed.
The early-Jan ‘26 lows also fulfilled Heating Oil projections for a 5th consecutive low on an ~8-month interval – with the previous lows set in early-May ’23, early-Jan & early-Sept ’24 & early-May ‘25… and reinforced the outlook for a powerful 1Q ’26 rally – along with Crude – that should stretch into March ‘26.
They remain on track for higher prices into the coming week when multiple weekly Cycle Progressions converge. That has been the ideal upside target since late-Dec/early-Jan ’26.
Range-trading targets, gap measures & other price projection indicators targeted 80 – 81.00/ CLM as the primary upside target for this March ’26 surge… which was just fulfilled on March 6th. A second, larger-magnitude objective comes into play around [reserved for subscribers] – a multi-year range-trading target.
Natural Gas turned back up and is reinforcing a developing (secondary) low but needs a daily close above 3.370/NGM to confirm.
On the weekly charts, the UNG (ETF) is tracing out an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that should spur a multi-week rally back to ~17.00/UNG. (Traders could have entered longs at ~11.30 – ~11.60/UNG and should now risk a weekly close below 11.17/UNG.)
While that indicator does not provide a concise timing target, it would project an ultimate rally to ~24.00/UNG (also the March ’25 high) IF a weekly close above 17.00/UNG emerges.
The next phase of a related 50 – 56-day low-low-low-high-high (Jan 30, ’26) – (high; March 23 – 27, ’26) Cycle Progression recurs in late-March ’26 and is when the next multi-week high is likely. It declined for half of that time period… and could now rally for the second half.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th. The S+P 500 led the latest reversal and generated an additional sell signal on Feb 25th. A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 is projected… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26. (Will mid-2026 Fulfill Related Analysis??)
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals subsequent action. The Middle East is now confirmed as the catalyst.
That projects a surge into March 13/16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
How Low Will Feb 11/12th & Feb 25th Sell Signals Drive Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project mid-March ’26… and for July ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing Outlook into March 13/16th?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.