Stock Index Feb ’26 Sell Signals Validated; Project Sharp Plunges into at Least March 9th!
03-04-26 – “Stock Indices fulfilled the latest phase of projected declines, with the DJIA reaching & initially holding its initial (minimum) downside target at ~47,700 as it dropped precisely to its rising weekly 21 Low MAC (47,635/DJIA) – the indicator that was being monitored for initial support.
That fulfilled what was described since its Feb 11th peak & reversal lower, including in the Feb 19th INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update:
02-19-26 – “Other indicators have, or soon could, corroborate… The DJIA is one of those.
After rallying into mid-month and spiking above monthly resistance, the DJIA has retreated – creating the potential for an Intra-month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at start of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end)…
The DJIA is creating some synergy of weekly HLS levels at 47,858 – 47,999 – coinciding with the 2026 intra-year low (intra-year trend support) at 47,853/ DJIA. That range could be tested quickly if/when the daily trend turns down. (If/when the DJIA gives a weekly close below 47,853, it would turn the intra-year trend down – a far more negative signal.)
Next week, the rising weekly 21 Low MAC should be just below that support – near 47,600/DJIA. And, the initial downside wave objective for this decline – IF a daily close below 48,673/DJIA materializes – would be near 47,700/DJIA, where the current decline would equal the magnitude of the preceding (Nov ’25) decline.” – Feb 19, ‘26 INSIIDE Track Update
As the DJIA was testing that initial downside target yesterday (intraday low was 47,626/DJIA), the S+P 500 was stretching to its weekly HLS (extreme weekly downside target) at 6725/ESH – AND its initial monthly support level (also at 6725/ESH).
Reinforcing that, the NQ-100 was making sure to keep its weekly 21 Low MAC heading down – by dropping below 24,400 (weekly 21 Low MARC) – but not yet below its Feb 6th low.
This overall decline continues to unfold and could still see additional new lows before mid-month… It would now take daily closes below the March 3rd lows to turn the intra-month trends down and to project additional selling into March 11 – 13th/16th…
A drop into March 9 – 16, ’26 would also complete a ~19-week decline from its late-Oct ’25 peak. That is the same duration of decline that most indexes completed in early-April ’25 – after dropping for ~19 weeks from late-Nov ’24. It would also complete a .618 retracement in time, in the NQ-100.
1 – 4 week traders could have entered short positions in e-mini S+P futures at 6974 up to 6983/ESH (equivalent of 7026 – 7035/ESM) and should now roll into the June contract. Place risk/exit stops on an intraday rally above 7003/ESM or a daily close above 6965/ESM. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The Dollar Index could only turn its 2 – 4 week trend neutral (from up) before resuming its rally on the heels of the war with Iran. That had it surging before being able to spike to a new 1 – 2 week low, as had been expected before the next rally took hold.
This rally could extend into next week, rebounding .618 of its Nov – Jan ’26 decline and fulfilling a ~16-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. A peak in March ’26 would fulfill a ~14-month high-high-high-(high; March ’26) Cycle Progression and a 7 – 7.5-month high-high-high-high-high-(
The next intermediate cycle low is not expected until the week of [reserved for subscribers] – part of the web of the prevailing 5, 10 & 20-week cycles…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil remain on track for higher prices into March 13/16, ’26 – the next phase of a ~14 trading-day/21 – 22-day high-low-low-low-low-low-high-
Range-trading targets, gap measures & other price projection indicators target 80 – 81.00/CLM as the primary upside target for this March ’26 surge. (That is not the only target, however.) Daily closes above the March 2nd – 4th highs are needed to turn the new intra-month trends up and to project additional upside into mid-month… also March 13/16, ’26.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th. The S+P 500 is leading the latest reversal and generated an additional sell signal on Feb 25th. A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 is projected… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26. (Will mid-2026 Fulfill Related Analysis??)
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals and the initial high in late-Jan ’26. The Middle East is now confirmed as the catalyst.
That projects a surge into March 13/16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
How Low Will Feb 11/12th & Feb 25th Sell Signals Drive Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project mid-March ’26… and for July ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing Outlook into March 13/16th?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.