Stock Index Sell Signals (Feb 11/12th & Feb 25th) Project Sharp Plunges into March 9 – 13th!
02-28-26 – “Stock indexes continue to trace out a topping phase that has been led by the NQ-100 (which peaked in late-Oct ’25). That was/is expected to trigger a much larger sell-off (than what has been seen in recent weeks) leading into mid-March ‘26. The Middle East might be the catalyst.
The S+P 500 & related indexes triggered new sell signals on the Feb 25th close and immediately spurred sharp declines. That could follow through in the coming days… Energy markets are the inverse and could see additional gains in the first part of March ’26 as the markets digest recent events….
Stock Indices provided a number of additional signals that corroborate the outlook for sharp declines from Feb 10/11th into March 9 – 13, ‘26.
As part of that, the DJIA was expected to trigger an Intra-month Inverted V Reversal lower that needed a late-Feb drop below 48,673/DJIA to fulfill (it dropped to 48,678/DJIA).
The S+P 500 joined the NQ-100 in tracing out a downward weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence. It needs a weekly close below ~6785/ESH to provide the next validation to that sequence. Meanwhile, the NQ-100 reinforced its intra-year downtrend, providing another weekly close below the year-opening range low (25,025/NQH).
The NQ-100 – and many other stocks & indexes – remain on track for a decline into the first two weeks of March ‘26 – that would fulfill a 15 – 16-week high-low-low-low-(low; March 2 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (That ~16-week cycle is linked to overarching monthly cycles that all converge in July ’26.)
A drop into March 9 – 16, ’26 would perpetuate that Cycle Progression and complete a ~19-week decline from its late-Oct ’25 peak. That is the same duration of decline that most indexes completed in early-April ’25 – after dropping for ~19 weeks from late-Nov ’24.
It would also complete a .618 retracement in time, in the NQ-100. The DJIA is corroborating that while maintaining the potential for a drop to ~47,700/DJIA (minimum downside target).
Stock indices reinforced the intermediate outlook with the DJIA turning its daily trend down as the S+P 500 & NQ-100 bounced enough to trigger new sell signals and project a new decline from Feb 25th (potentially into ~March 11th).
1 – 4 week traders could have entered short positions in e-mini S+P futures at 6974 up to 6983/ESH, in line with the trading strategy detailed last week. Traders can now risk/exit on an intraday rally above 6967/ESH or a daily close above 6936/ESH.
That signal was also capable of being used to enter short positions in other indexes… Those positions should risk [reserved for subscribers]… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have consolidated – leading into Thursday’s US-Iran talks – after surging into Feb 19/20th and fulfilling the latest phase of a ~14 trading-day/21 – 22-day high (Sept 26) – low (Oct 17) – low (Nov 5/6) – low (Nov 25) – low (Dec 16) – low (Jan 7) – high (Jan 29) – (high; Feb 19/20, ’26) Cycle Sequence.
The ensuing phase – on March 13/16th – has a larger synergy of weekly Cycle Progressions and could culminate a larger, overall advance. In the interim, a pullback was expected… Crude just turned its weekly trend up and was expected to see another quick pullback before a new rally.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th. The S+P 500 is leading the latest reversal and generated an additional sell signal on Feb 25th. A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 is projected… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26. (Will mid-2026 Fulfill Related Analysis??)
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals and the initial high in late-Jan ’26. The Middle East is likely to be the catalyst.
That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
How Did Feb 25th Sell Signal Reinforce Feb 11/12th Sell Signals?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For Plunge into March ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.