Stock Indexes Nearing Time (Late-March ’26) For Pivotal Low; April Rally Projected.
03-25-26 – 2026 & The Inflation Quagmire – “The price of oil (gasoline) is a tax on almost every basic commodity. It factors into production (including food & agricultural markets), distribution & shipping. Normal swings in the price of energy are either absorbed (by the seller), hidden, or passed along outright to the consumer. Each of those approaches has its own ramifications down the line.
In late-October ’25, the 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12-month outlook for energy markets and commodity inflation (based on the GSCI) became much clearer… and it coincided with multi-year Cycle Progressions in stock indexes – projecting a final equity market high in Jan/Feb ’26 and the onset of an initial sharp sell-off into March/April ’26.
The Nov ’25 INSIIDE Track spelled it out:
10-31-25 – “Every stock market plunge, of the past 50 years, has had its warning signs. They have not occurred in a vacuum with sudden stock selling coming out of nowhere.
Even the early-2025 ‘Liberation Day’ related plummet was presaged months prior… and ultimately bottomed exactly when & where anticipated. The key is to recognize and heed those warning signs…
Equities have rallied after their early-April ‘25 lows fulfilled 17-Year Cycle analysis for ~30% plunges from their highs. That was projected to spur rallies to new highs in many indexes with a final peak potentially stretching into early-2026…
Crude Oil – Multi-year trend is neutral following multi-month & multi-year cycle peak in Sept ‘23 and opposing 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month cycle low in September 2024. A future low is likely in 1Q 2026.
Commodities – Multi-year pullback after 2022 peak. The GSCI fulfilled analysis for a 6 – 12 month bottom in Sept ‘24 and retested/held that low in April ‘25, creating a second 6 – 12 month (or larger) bottom…
Stock Indices remain in overall uptrends that could stretch, in some indexes, into 1Q 2026. They were expected to see a series of highs in late-July, late-Sept & late-Nov ’25 with a final high potentially stretching into January ’26…
The broader outlook still anticipates another substantial decline in 2026 – potentially a second fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines – but there need to be additional warning signs developing in the coming months…
Bonds & Notes remain in a slow, steady uptrend since bottoming in mid-May. That, and the subsequent action, projected overall advances into the first quarter of 2026 – when a more significant peak is likely in these markets…
The GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) continues to hold above its Sept ‘24 low and generated a pair of bullish signals in October – turning its weekly trend up and producing a monthly 2 Close Reversal higher.
That should spur a new advance that could last, on balance, into April 2026. Multi-month & multi-year cycles & Cycle Progressions show this could be the inception of a new bull market – capable of lasting into ~April 2027…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are diverging after Crude fulfilled analysis for an intervening high in Sept ‘25. Crude remains in a weekly & monthly downtrend. Unleaded Gas is similar with both maintaining the potential for an overall decline into Jan ’26 – when a 9 – 10-month high-high-high-low-(low; Jan ’26) Cycle Progression recurs. An overlapping ~8-month low-low-low-low-low-(low; Jan ’26) Cycle Sequence corroborates.
Heating Oil is in a more constructive wave structure with all of these energy markets poised for an intermediate high on Nov 3 – 7, ‘25 – the fulfillment of ~6-week & ~12-week Cycle Progressions in Crude. That could spur a new decline.” – Nov ’25 INSIIDE Track
Throughout Nov & Dec ’25 and Jan ’26, that same theme was stressed repeatedly – that energy markets would bottom in early-Jan ’26 and coincide with a major 1Q ’26 rally in the GSCI… and that stock indexes would turn bearish in Feb ’26 and drop into March/April ’26. In both cases – GSCI & Stock Indexes – those were expected to be initial moves.
As is usually the case, the exact fundamental driver was not yet apparent… but cycles and technical analysis do not need to know the fundamentals before recognizing an impending shift. That is why they are so valuable.
Stock Indices have initially fulfilled the outlook for a large sell-off in March ’26, following 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions that peaked in Jan/Feb ‘26. However, they could still see lower lows – either in late-March or early-April ’26.
Both the weekly trends & weekly 21 MACs generated negative (multi-month) signals and were expected to lead to a pair of lows…
1 – 4 week traders could have exited remaining short positions in e-mini S+P futures (from 7026 – 7035/ESM) – all of which were initiated on the Feb 25th close – on March 23rd. The final 1/3 could have been exited when trailing stops were hit around 6631/ESM (147.0/ESM points above the 6483/ESM low) – with avg gains of ~$20,000/contract… resulting in an avg. overall gain of about $19,700/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling multi-month sell signals generated on Feb 11 – 13th and then on Feb 25th. Another spike low is still likely in late-March or early-April ’26… before a larger rebound takes hold in April ’26. The S+P is focused on pivotal support near 6419/ESM as the NQ-100 remains on target for a multi-month drop to ~23,200/NQ. The DJTA is an outlier that is giving clues surrounding a future high.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. That was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals & subsequent action in Crude & the products. Unleaded Gas projects an overall advance into the week of March 30 – April 2, ’26.
What Would Late-March/Early-April Stock Cycle Lows Reveal About 2026?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing Outlook for Jan ’26 – April ’27?
What is DJTA Revealing About Future April ’26 Rally?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.