Stock Indexes Reinforce Bearish Cycles; S+P 500 Triggers New Signal – Projects Drop into ~March 9th!

02-25-26 – “Stock Indices continue to trace out a topping phase that has been led by the NQ-100 (which peaked in late-Oct ’25) and has more recently been joined by the S+P 500 and then the DJIA.  The 1 – 2 month outlook is for a drop into March 6 – 16, ’26… they do continue to produce signs of a topping market that is – at least initially – rolling over to the downside (with multi-week reversal signals).

As described last week, the DJIA set up a unique potential for the final 5 trading days of the month (this week) – when a new sell-off was/is an increasing probability.  This came after it fulfilled a combination of pivotal Cycle Progressions while peaking and reversing lower on Feb 11 – 13th… immediately after the first 40 days of 2026 (‘period of testing’).

That index has been taking the lead, for the past ~two weeks, in this reversal sequence and has been tracing out an Intra-month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at start of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end) after spiking above 50,000/DJIA.

A late-Feb drop below 48,673/DJIA is needed to complete that pattern.  It is increasing the synergy of weekly HLS levels at 47,804 – 47,999 – coinciding with the 2026 intra-year low at 47,853/DJIA.

The initial downside wave objective for this decline – IF a daily close below 48,673/DJIA materializes – is near 47,700/DJIA, where the current decline would equal the magnitude of the preceding (Nov ’25) decline.

That is the minimum downside DJIA target.

The rising weekly 21 Low MAC in the DJIA is just below all that critical support this week – near 47,500/ DJIA.  It should be near 47,600/DJIA next week.

From a timing perspective, the ~6-week Cycle Progression illustrated in the accompanying HCP diagram would likely – in the ideal scenario – produce an 18 – 20 trading day decline (followed by a 9 – 10 trading day rebound into its next phase).  That would take it lower into March 10 – 12, ’26.

Leading into this week, these were some of the near-term expectations for equities:

• DJIA would continue to decline and ideally fulfill an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower.
• DJIA would turn its daily & daily 21 MAC trends down with a daily close below 49,084/DJIA.
• NQ-100 & DJIA would drop into Feb 23rd, the latest in a series of 1 – 2-week swings.
• S+P 500 would invert its next 10 trading-day cycle and set a low on Feb 25/26th.
• S+P 500 would rally to 6974 – 6988/ESH (trading signal) before the next significant decline.

Before getting to those factors that have been fulfilled (all but one of them) – corroborating the outlook surrounding mid-March ’26 – it is important the address the one that was wrong… and what that means, going forward.

The S+P 500 has not yet inverted the uncanny, 10 trading-day cycle that has governed it since mid-Oct.

As a result, it should set another high on Feb 25/26th (now), the latest phase of a ~10 trading-day high (Oct 15) – high (Oct 29) – high (Nov 12) – high (Nov 26+) – high (Dec 11) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – high (Feb 11) – (high; Feb 26, ’26) Cycle Sequence that has timed a peak every 10 trading days since Oct 15th…

Feb 25/26th is also the midpoint of an overarching 19 – 20 trading-day high (Nov 12) – high (Dec 11) – high (Jan 12) – high (Feb 10/11) – (low; March 11/12, ’26) Cycle Progression.  As a result, a high or low on Feb 25/26th (now likely to be a high) would reinforce that larger-magnitude 19 – 20 trading-day CP.

To start this week, the DJIA & NQ-100 dropped into Feb 23rd – the day when the DJIA turned its daily trend down, signaling an initial low and the time for a likely 2 – 3-day reactive bounce.  At the same time, the NQ-100 set its lowest daily close since Feb 5th.

That fulfilled the potential for another quick drop as described in the Feb 18, ’26 WR Alert:

2-18-26 – “The DJIA is creating some synergy of weekly HLS levels at 47,858 – 47,999… The Russell 2000 is tracing out its own daily trend and daily 21 MAC reversal sequence… The next three days (Feb 19, 20 & 23, ’26) remain in focus and could produce another – potentially sharp – sell-off in the equity markets.”

 

The DJIA daily trend reversal added another key index to the growing number of those now in daily downtrends (or down/neutral trends).  That list now includes the DJIA, S+P 500, NQ-100 & Russell 2000. (The others would not do the same until daily closes below 18,612/DJTA & 3510/IDX.)

Both the S+P 500 & NQ-100 bounced to their daily 21 High MACs while the S+P 500 is testing its weekly 21 High MAC.  The strongest validation – to the outlook for an overall decline into March 6 – 16, ’26 – would be for a reversal lower to take hold tomorrow.

On a weekly basis, the NQ-100 – and a myriad of other stocks & stock indexes – would fulfill a 15 – 16-week high-low-low-low-(low; March 2 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression if they moved lower, on balance, into/ through the first half of March ’26.

(That ~16-week cycle is linked to overarching monthly cycles that all converge in July ’26 and identify a more significant period of time.)

In the case of the NQ-100, a drop into March 9 – 16, ’26 would perpetuate that Cycle Progression and complete a ~19-week decline from its late-Oct ’25 peak.  That is the same duration of decline that most indexes completed in early-April ’25 – after dropping for ~19 weeks from late-Nov ’24.  It would also complete a .618 retracement in time, in the NQ-100.

1 – 4 week traders can be entering short positions in e-mini S+P futures at 6974 up to 6998/ESH and risk/exit on a daily close above 7011/ESH.  Those parameters can also be used for similar positions in related indexes and other vehicles, etc… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have consolidated – leading into Thursday’s US-Iran talks – after surging into Feb 19/20th and fulfilling the latest phase of a ~14 trading-day/21 – 22-day high (Sept 26) – low (Oct 17) – low (Nov 5/6) – low (Nov 25) – low (Dec 16) – low (Jan 7) – high (Jan 29) – (high; Feb 19/20, ’26) Cycle Sequence.

The ensuing phase – on March 13/16th – has a larger synergy of weekly Cycle Progressions and could culminate a larger, overall advance.  In the interim, a pullback was expected…  Crude just turned its weekly trend up and was expected to see another quick pullback before a new rally.”   TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

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Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th.  The S+P 500 is leading the latest set-up and poised to generate an additional sell signal if/when a brief bounce unfolds.  A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 is projected… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26.

The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027.  An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals and the initial high in late-Jan ’26.

That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression.  (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.)  The GSCI concurs.  Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.

 

Why Did Feb 11th Usher in Bearish Phase in Stock Indexes?

What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For Plunge into March ‘26?

How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.