Stock Indexes Reinforce Feb 11/12th Sell Signals; S+P 500 Adds New Signal!
02-21-26 – “Stock indexes continue to trace out a topping phase that has been led by the NQ-100 (which peaked in late-Oct ’25). This validates the 1Q ’26 outlook and could trigger a much larger sell-off (than what has been seen in recent weeks) leading into mid-March ‘26. The S+P 500 is joining the NQ-100
in its weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence as the DJIA is setting up a unique potential for the final 5 trading days of the month. Bonds & Notes are poised to enter a new rally as the Dollar, Euro & Yen enter a pivotal time. Gold & Silver and the Energy Complex are reflecting Middle East uncertainty and should rally into [reserved for subscribers]…
Stock Indices are trading below their early-Feb highs with the NQ-100 slowly tracing out a multi-month weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence. On Feb 13th, the NQ-100 closed the week below its flattening weekly 21 Low MAC for the first time since early-May ’25… focusing attention on the past week for a corroborating signal.
On Feb 17th, the NQ-100 dropped below the weekly 21 Low MARC – turning the direction of the corresponding 21 Low MAC down. The cash index needs a drop below 24,507/NQ (in the coming week) to do the same. The S+P 500 is in a similar pattern – though a couple steps behind – and needs an intra-week drop below 6739/ESH and a weekly close below ~6780/ESH.
On a weekly basis, the NQ-100 – and a myriad of other stocks & stock indexes – would fulfill a 15 – 16-week high-low-low-low-(low; March 2 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression if they moved lower, on balance, into/through the first half of March ’26. (That ~16-week cycle is linked to overarching monthly cycles that all converge in July ’26.)
In the case of the NQ-100, a drop into March 9 – 16, ’26 would perpetuate that Cycle Progression and complete a ~19-week decline from its late-Oct ’25 peak. That is the same duration of decline that most indexes completed in early-April ’25 – after dropping for ~19 weeks from late-Nov ’24. It would also complete a .618 retracement in time, in the NQ-100.
The DJIA is corroborating, maintaining the potential for an Intra-month Inverted V Reversal lower that needs a late-Feb drop below 48,673/DJIA to fulfill.
It is increasing the synergy of weekly HLS levels at 47,804 – 47,999 – coinciding with the 2026 intra-year low at 47,853/DJIA. The initial downside wave objective for this decline – IF a daily close below 48,673/DJIA materializes – would be near 47,700/DJIA.
Stock indices are vacillating near their highs with the DJIA at a decisive juncture. It needs a daily close below 49,084/DJIA to turn its daily trend & 21 MAC down and to extend its sell-off…
1 – 4 week traders can enter short positions in e-mini S+P futures at 6974 up to 6998/ESH and initially risk a daily close above 7011/ESH. Those parameters can also be used for similar positions in related indexes, etc… TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil surged again, fulfilling projections for a quick pullback into early-Feb ’26 followed by new surges into Feb 19/20th – the culmination of the latest phase of a ~14 trading-day/21 – 22-day high (Sept 26) – low (Oct 17) – low (Nov 5/6) – low (Nov 25) – low (Dec 16) – low (Jan 7) – high (Jan 29) – (high; Feb 19/20, ’26) Cycle Sequence.
The ensuing phase – on March 13/16th – has a larger synergy of weekly Cycle Progressions and could culminate a larger, overall advance.
Crude just turned its weekly trend up and could see another quick pullback before a new rally. Feb 24th is the midpoint of a ~14-day low-low-low-low-(high; March 3, ’26) Cycle Progression and could time the next (quick pullback?) low.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th. The S+P 500 is leading the latest set-up and poised to generate an additional sell signal if/when a brief bounce unfolds. A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 is projected… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals and the initial high in late-Jan ’26.
That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
Why Did Feb 11th Usher in Bearish Phase in Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For Plunge into March ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.