Stock Indexes Validate March 30th Cycle Low; Portend April ‘26 Rally. Energy Markets Peaking.
04-01-26 – 2026 & The Inflation Quagmire II – “Energy prices and the GSCI powerfully fulfilled expectations for 1Q ’26 while convincingly validating the outlook for Jan ’26 – April ’27. That is when the latest inflationary stage had been forecast to unfold.
The tricky part is that this is occurring while interest rates are already historically high (for this century), while the Dollar Index is not far from multi-year lows, as many commodities are rallying from higher plateaus, while hard currency (precious metals) remain at the highest levels seen in all but the last 3 months, AND as the true impact of last year’s tariffs are only beginning to take hold.**.
[**In early-April ’25, when multiple tariffs were enacted, most larger companies had massively stockpiled inventory before the tariffs took hold. As a result, they had months & months of inventory that was only recently depleted – before, during & after the holiday season – and now is being replaced.
Similar to 2021 & 2022, retailers now have another excuse to raise prices and blame it on the Strait of Hormuz… which is only part of the issue. The only thing that would temporarily ‘deflate’ prices would be a new stock market plunge – like we already saw in late-2018, early-2020, much of 2022 & early-2025… an occurrence that is becoming more regular.]…
Stock Indices stretched their declines into the late-March/early-April ’26 time frame – the ideal period for a multi-week low to take hold. That would time the culmination of an initial decline after stock indexes fulfilled projections for large sell-offs following Cycle Progression highs in Jan/Feb ’26.
The weekly trends and HLS indicators focused on this week – March 30 – April 2, ’26 – as the ideal time for an intermediate low.
The NQ-100 fulfilled the minimum necessary for a blow-off low, dropping right to its multi-month downside target while fulfilling a ~22-week sell-off – a precise .618 division of the ~8-month/33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression that pinpointed the late-Oct ’26 top.
On a daily basis, the NQ-100 set pivotal highs on July 31 & Oct 29, ’25 and Jan 28, ’26 – creating a geometric ~3-month/90-91 day high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. A subsequent 56 – 61-day sell-off was the ideal scenario & represented .618 – .667 of that cycle – projecting a low on March 25 – 30, ’26.
As discussed last week, that made March 30, ’26 the most synergistic date with regard to both weekly Cycle Progressions. A low on March 30th would also fulfill a ~51-week low (Apr 24 – 28 ’23) – low (Apr 15 – 19, ’24) – low (Apr 7 – 11, ’25) – (low; March 30 – April 2, ’26) Cycle Progression.
So far, that is what the NQ-100 has done.
In addition, March 30, ’26 was the minimum time objective for the DJIA to set another multi-month low – which it has done every 25 – 26 weeks since Oct ’23. It attacked its 1 – 2-month (minimum) downside target near 45,000, corroborating those timing indicators and pinpointing the ideal time for a low.
The initial rallies provided preliminary validation to that scenario but the indexes would need to turn their daily trends up and neutralize their daily 21 MACs to signal that (at least) a 1 – 2 week low is forming. It would take daily closes above the April 1st highs – in most indexes – to turn those daily trends up.
The DJTA (Transportation Average) is an index worth watching closely in April. It is the only primary index that has not turned its weekly trend down. Instead, it traced out a textbook ’a-b-c’ correction into March 13, ’26 – when its intermediate cycles bottomed and signaled a multi-week low.
From there, it turned its daily trend up (only index to do that in last few weeks) while rallying into March 25th – portending a quick, reactive 2 – 3 day pullback before a larger rally. The 3rd day of that reactive 2 – 3-day pullback was March 30th – exactly when it set a secondary low. The daily & weekly trend indicators concurred, projecting a rally back to the highs.
A ~2-month low/high (April 8/9) – high (June 10) – low (Aug 11) – low (Oct 10) – high (Dec 11) – high (Feb 11) – (high; April 10/13, ’26) Cycle Sequence pinpoints April 10th or 13th as the ideal date for a top. A corroborating ~6-month low (April 8) – low (Oct 10) – (high; April 10/13, ’26) concurs.
Many other indexes have similar daily Cycle Progressions focused on April 10/13, ’26 for a top…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have surged dramatically after fulfilling projections for a major low in early-Jan ’26 followed by a sharp 1Q ’26 surge along with the GSCI.
The early-Jan ‘26 lows also fulfilled Heating Oil projections for a 5th consecutive low on an ~8-month interval – with the previous lows set in early-May ’23, early-Jan & early-Sept ’24 & early-May ‘25… and reinforced the outlook for a powerful 1Q ’26 rally – along with Crude.
Unleaded Gas continues to validate its Jan 5 – 9, ’26 outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signal – and late-Jan ’26 weekly 21 MAC signal – that ushered in a likely surge into early-April ’26.
A rally into March 30 – April 2, ’26 (now) would complete a .618 rally in time (25 weeks down & 15 weeks up) and a ~1-year/~52-week high-low-(high) Cycle Sequence.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have fulfilled multi-month sell signals and set a likely multi-week low on March 30, ’26 and should be followed by a strong rally in April ’26… into at least April 10/13, ’26. The S+P & NQ-100 reached multi-month support and downside targets near 6419/ESM & ~23,200/NQ – perfectly fulfilling ongoing published objectives. The DJTA projects a strong rally – initially into April 10/13, ’26.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincided with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. That was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals & subsequent action in Crude & the products… leading into late-March/early-April ’26 – when a pivotal top has been projected.
What Does March 30, ‘26 Stock Market Low Reveal About 2Q 2026?
How are Peaking Energy Cycles Corroborating?
What is DJTA Revealing About Expected April ’26 Rally?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.