Stock Indices Fulfill Major Upside Targets; Project Sell-off into ~April 19th… and Then ???
03/23/24 – “Stock indexes have all (three primary & three secondary indexes) fulfilled their 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year upside targets at the same time the Russell 2000 fulfilled its weekly trend pattern & is trying to signal a top. The S+P Midcap 400 is spiking higher into its upside objectives…
Stock Indices have fulfilled 1 – 2 year upside price targets in recent weeks, indicating that their advances (since late-2022) are living on borrowed time.
The attainment of upside objectives does not immediately signal a top or trigger a reversal lower but it does show that a market has completed all that was projected/expected for this move. Strong trends are notorious for extending beyond these types of targets, but usually not for long (in time).
As discussed in recent weeks, individual stocks are showing wide divergence with a few key stocks (like NVDA and other AI-related stocks) carrying the recent advances. However, there is growing disparity even in the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks – reinforcing this divergence. 3 of those 7 stocks set their highest weekly closes in Dec ’23 or Jan ’24.
The DJTA remains below its Dec & Feb peaks, focused on May 2024 for the next significant, multi-month low. That reinforces a ~4.25-Year Cycle in primary stock indexes.
And the S+P Midcap is re-attacking its multi-year upside targets:
3-06-24 – “If it is able to spike up to 3003 – 3034/ IDX, the S+P Midcap would complete a rally from its October ’23 low that is 1.618 times the magnitude of the preceding decline… and reach the intermediate LLH created by its October ’23 and January ’24 lows… 2980 – 3045/IDX is also where monthly resistance and the Intra-Month PLLR for March 2024 exist.”
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders should be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction. The remaining upside potential appears very limited as the downside risk escalates. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indices have remained in daily uptrends while swinging between 1 – 2 week cycle highs and lows. They sold off into mid-March – many retesting and holding their month-opening ranges – as the NQ-100 perpetuated a cycle described last month:
2-17-24 – “The NQ-100 has a ~10-week/69 – 71-day low (Aug 18, ‘23) – low (Oct 26) – low (Jan 4/5, ‘24) – (low; March 13 – 15, ‘24) Cycle Progression that projects a future low in mid-March ’24.”
The next phase of that cycle is in late-May ’24 and could time a future multi-week low. The midpoint is April 19th (Date of Aggression) and coincides with when other indexes project a daily cycle low.”
Stock Indexes are attacking multi-year upside targets as they enter the start of Natural Year 2024/25 – a time when a significant shift is expected in many markets. The first month of that Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times initial and revealing shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In the case of 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets with spike highs forecast for now (March 21 – 25th).
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th… the culmination of this transition period. The key will be what occurs during that (expected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point.
Reinforcing this, a leading stock – NVDA – just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could soon see a sharp correction. March 25th should time a downward shift in NVDA and related stocks.
What Would Trigger a Drop into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This be an Early Warning Sign for 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.