Stock Market Fulfilling Projected Advance into Nov. ‘19… Corroborating Outlook into June 2020. AMZN Validating Daily Sell Signal
11/13/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “The Nov. 6 Alert: Proxies & Canaries revisited the topic of decisive stocks providing revealing clues that have often led the overall market turns. There are also indexes that frequently lead turns in the broader market and/or the primary indexes. They, too, have been frequently discussed. Since this is such a pivotal time, they are worth discussing some more…
In late-Oct./early-Nov., AMZN set the stage for another sell-off with its weekly trend, weekly cycles, weekly wave structure and weekly 21 MAC action providing a textbook setup for a multi-week sell-off that could take it below xxxx/AMZN in the not-too-distant future. That setup began in mid-Oct…
On Oct. 14 – 18, AMZN rallied to test and hold a pair of weekly LHR levels – portending a 1 – 2 month peak in the 2 – 3 weeks that followed. Nov. 4 began the third and final week during which that rebound peak was most likely – making it a prime candidate for a high.
Daily cycles concurred, projecting a likely peak for Nov. 4. The intra-month trend structured reinforced that, projecting a peak in the first three trading days of the new month (Nov. 1 – 5).
AMZN has set early-month highs every other month since March 4. Its penultimate high came on May 3, ~2 months/~60 degrees from that March 4 high. It set its ultimate high in early-July and then a secondary high in early-Sept. – all of which projected focus to early-Nov. for a peak to its recent rebound.
A peak on Nov. 4 would complete a 30-day advance and arrive 180 & 120 degrees from those March 4 & May 3 highs – a perfect synergy of geometric cycles… Just as important, Nov. 4 is when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC would surge – from 1672 up to 2035 in a matter of 5 weeks…
Since price levels were already trading near that replacement calculator, it became an immediate negative influence. AMZN rallied into Nov. 4 and peaked while testing its weekly 21 Low MARC and 21 Low MAC resistance as it attacked and held its weekly resistance (1813.5 – 1818.0/AMZN).
It quickly reversed lower and turned its daily & intra-month trends down. Today, it turned its daily 21 MAC back down while closing below it…
The Russell 2000 peaked on Nov. 5 and then the DJTA – the index that has led most of the intermediate turning points of the past several years – peaked on Nov. 7and triggered multiple daily sell signals. It has not yet elevated that to an intermediate signal.
Perhaps the most concerning indexes are those in China & Hong Kong. While challenges like the protests in Hong Kong – and their potential contagion – are often contained to those particular regions, there are times when the potential ramifications outgrow their specific cities or countries and have a dampening effect on global stock euphoria.
Technical and cyclical analysis (see Nov. ’19 INSIIDE Track) described why those Asian markets should see sharp declines into early-Dec. (and ultimately into May ’20) – an outlook that has been powerfully corroborated and confirmed by market action of the past week… and the escalating protests in Hong Kong.
How much is too much (for the rest of global equity markets to absorb without negatively reacting)?
Stock Indices have fulfilled multi-month expectations, rallying into Nov. 2019 and perpetuating a ~7-month low (July ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Sept. ’18) – high (April ’19) – high (Nov. ’19) Cycle Progression…
All of the primary indexes have fulfilled multi-month upside targets are have entered a multi-week period when their inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs are surging – a factor that could soon become a negative influence. That was expected to support price action for the first two weeks of Nov. and then steadily shift to becoming a neutral and then negative factor during the second half of the month…
It would take daily closes below 27,517/DJIA, 3063/ESZ & 8161/NQZ to generate the first signs of a multi-week high and reversal lower.”
Stock indexes are fulfilling projections for a strong advance from late-Aug. (when multi-month & multi-year cycles projected a 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month bottom) into Nov. 2019 – the latest phase of a ~7-month low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression… that also portends an ensuing high in ~June 2020. Weekly cycles have the greatest synergy on Nov. 11 – 15.
Key (‘proxy’) stocks and leading indexes (DJTA) triggered 1 – 2 week sell signals on Nov. 5 – 9 and portend an initial drop into Nov. 21/22. However, the DJIA, S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 remain strong and continue to rally.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.