Stock Market Peak Casting Shadows Ahead… to 2025/2026 Recession Cycle.
03/28/24 – “Equities rallied from cycle lows in late-October and are fulfilling the outlook for overall advances (from late-2022 & early-2023) to divergent highs as they prepare for the recurrence of the 17-Year Cycle in 2024 – 2025. Initial declines could be seen into May/June 2024, presaging another more significant sell-off in 2024/2025…
The 17-Year Cycle times a multitude of natural, market, and geopolitical phenomenon on a consistently recurring basis. As time goes on, more evidence is emerging that this is a cycle at the core of the universe… or at least our little corner of the universe (Sun & Earth).
When INSIIDE Track first started discussing this cycle in the late-1990s, there was little corroborating information or evidence it was a cycle of great import (outside the markets).
Regardless, there was little denying it was a powerful influence in our world.
In 2006 – 2010, 2 – 3 dozen [INSIIDE Track] reports/articles focused on that 17-Year Cycle – beginning with extensive analysis that projected a multi-year stock market peak for late-2007… and a subsequent ‘stock crash of 35 – 50%’.
A couple years into that analysis, I came across research by David Juckett who had identified a consistent 17-Year Cycle between the ‘to-and-away’ magnetic forces between the Sun and Earth. That cycle would ‘peak’ every 17 years – powerfully impacting the attractive & repelling forces on Earth.
That reinforced one conclusion that had already been reached (and published) – namely that Middle East conflict recurred every 17 years – in 1939, 1956, 1973 & 1990… all linked to the preceding ‘carving up of the Middle East’ in 1922 (17 years prior) and all focused on 2007 (and now on 2024).
In 2022 & 2023, INSIIDE Track explained why the latest phase of Middle East conflict would be far more significant and would begin in October 2023 – the return of a myriad of cycles timing wars, attacks & conflict in the Middle East.
At that time (late-2022), another convincing piece of research was published, reinforcing the weight of this analysis on the 17-Year Cycle…
12-22-22 – “THE EXTENDED SOLAR CYCLE: A new paper published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences confirms that there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle…”We call it ‘the Extended Solar Cycle,'” says lead author Scott McIntosh of NCAR.
“There are two overlapping patterns of activity on the sun, each lasting about 17 years.”…
Wilcox data show not one but two co-existing patterns of activity. They overlap in a way any music major will recognize… “singing rounds… a musical piece in which multiple voices sing the same melody, but start the song at different times… The sun is doing the same thing with its magnetic fields… This is when Solar Maximum happens. McIntosh calls the transition “the Terminator.” 11 years vs. 17 years. 1 cycle vs. 2 cycles.”
A New Paradigm for Solar Activity: The Extended Solar Cycle
17-Year Cycle Ubiquity…
That’s right! It has now been recognized that the Sun has a pair of prevailing cycles – the oft-cited ~11.2-Year Sunspot Cycle AND an overlapping 17-Year Cycle. Surprise, surprise! The evidence keeps mounting.
17-Year Cycle Concerns
The greatest impact of this cycle, as is the case with most cycles, is during its transition phase… from one phase to the next. Just as the 40-Year Cycle has 5 – 7 year periods before & after its shift – that usually time the ‘seismic shifts’ of that cycle, the 17-Year Cycle has critical 2 – 3 year periods leading into and beyond its shifts.
Another of those has to do with economic recessions (and depressions) in the US. As detailed on page 2, 2025 – 2026 is the latest phase of a 17-Year Cycle that has timed 13 (of a possible 14) recessions since the founding of this country. The odds appear to favor a 14th one occurring in the coming years. Other factors concur.
17-Year Cycle of US Recessions
2025/2026 – ?? Next Significant Recession in US??
2008/09 – Great Recession – Dec 2007 – June 2009
1991/92 – Post Persian Gulf War Recession (often credited/blamed for George H.W. Bush re-election defeat) – July 1990 – March 1991
1974/75 – 1973 – 1975 (stagflation) recession; oil crisis (4xs price increase), stocks drop 50%
1957/58 – Recession of 1958
1940/41 – No real recession; Instead, entry into WW II
1923/24 – 1923/24 recession (mild); followed depression of 1920/21
1906/07 – Panic (Crash) of 1907; severe monetary contraction… ultimately led to founding of Federal Reserve System
1889/90 – 1890/91 recession linked to Panic of 1890 in UK
1872/73 – Panic of 1873 began ‘long depression’; failure of largest US bank (Jay Cooke); Coinage Act of 1873 depressed silver; led to resumption of gold standard in 1879
1855/56 – Panic of 1857 (railroad bubble burst; recession often credited as main cause of Civil War)
1838/39 – 1836 – 1838 recession (bank failures, lack of confidence in paper currency) followed by one of longest/deepest depressions of 1800’s – beginning in 1839
1821/22 – Panic of 1819 led to depression into 1821; followed by recession of 1822-1823
1804/05 – Recession of 1802 – 1804 (followed by depression of 1807 – 1810)
1787/88 – 1785 – 1788 recession following Panic of 1785… led to demand for stronger federal gov’t.
Since the founding of the United States of America, the 17-Year Cycle has powerfully and precisely timed the ebb and flow of economic expansion and contraction… often tied to currency battles and struggles.
The only time this 17-Year Cycle did not time a notable recession was in 1941 – when the US was entering World War II. The other 13 times, it identified recessions and/or depressions, most recently in 2008 – 2009.
If this 17-Year Cycle remains accurate, another recession is likely in 2025 – 2026!”
Stock Indexes attacked multi-year upside targets and are topping as they transition into a new Natural Year. The first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times significant shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets, likely accelerating to the downside in mid-April.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th… the culmination of this transition period. The key will be what occurs during that (projected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point (and an initial low).
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame not long after (when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). AI-related stocks are reinforcing this. NVDA just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could see a sharp correction into April 19th… and potentially beyond (if one key indicator turns negative by/on April 19th). Its first downside target is 750 – 765/NVDA.
What Would Trigger a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.