Stock Market Peaking; Key Indexes Fulfill Upside Targets. Watch 16,700/NQ.
11/10/21 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices have retreated after surging to new highs and initially fulfilling the potential for peaks on Nov. 4 – 9 – perpetuating a ~30-day/~1-month related cycle… Most indexes neutralized their daily and intra-month uptrends but cannot turn the daily trends down until Nov. 12, at the very earliest (the trigger points are not yet established). Meanwhile, it would take daily closes below the Nov 1 lows (35,797/DJIA, 4586/ESZ & 15,595/NQZ) to turn the intra-month trends down…
Multiple price factors argue for an intermediate correction from recent highs…
The magnitude of the DJTA’s advance – from Sept 20 into Nov. 2 – matched the magnitude of its initial March – June ’20 rally, a potential case of wave ‘5’ = wave ‘1’. Since that wave structure also included an extended wave ‘3’, the wave similarity of the wave ‘1’ and ‘5’ argues for a peak.
The fulfillment of weekly trend patterns in the S+P 500, Russell 2000 and other indexes also favors a reactive sell-off in the near-term. But all of that remains in the context of a more significant peak anticipated in 1Q ’22 – most likely in Jan/Feb ’22 (and ideally in Jan ’22) – and at least on the same magnitude as the May/June ’21 peak.
In the interim, the more likely scenario for market swings is playing out and remains: high (early-Sept), low (Sept 20 – Oct 4), higher high (Nov. 4 – 9), higher low (late-Nov/early-Dec), and then higher high in 1Q ’22.”
Stocks are fulfilling critical upside targets with multiple price factors arguing ‘for an intermediate correction from recent highs’.
The Russell 2000 is fulfilling its monthly & weekly trend patterns as well as Elliott Wave structure – all of which projected a final surge following the Sept 20 cycle low. It has reached key upside targets and could now see a sell-off into late-Nov.
The DJTA has done the same – and has reached multiple major upside price targets – setting the stage for a multi-month (or longer) peak. The NQ-100 is expected to spike up to ~16,700/NQ in order to fulfill a decisive wave ‘5’ objective and then drop into early-Dec. Continued divergence is expected as the equity markets prepare for what could be a dramatic shift in 2022.
How far could stocks drop into late-Nov/early-Dec ’21? What are ramifications of DJTA, Russell 2000 and NQ-100 attacking multi-month or multi-year upside targets??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.