Stock Market Trading: Stocks Perpetuating ~7-Month Cycle; Projected Peak Most Likely on Nov. 11 – 15! Why Does ‘Danger Period’ Ensue?
10/30/19 INSIIDE Track: “10/31/19 – Stock Indexes have nearly fulfilled weekly & monthly cycles, projecting a multi-month rally from the Aug. ‘19 lows – into the first half of Nov. 2019. Before addressing the significance of cycles converging over the next two weeks, it is important to maintain the context of the Aug. 2019 low – a bottom that was/is expected to hold for at least 3 – 6 months (and potentially longer)…
The late-August low provided a precise fulfillment of the 4-Year Cycle – closely mirroring the action of Aug. 2015. The 2015 low came on Aug. 24, the Monday of the final full week of August, culminating an accelerated ~40-day sell-off originating from a peak on July 16, 2015.
In 2019, primary indexes (DJIA, NYA) also peaked on July 16 and began an accelerated ~40-day sell-off. That bottomed on the Monday (Aug. 26) of the final week of Aug. – along with daily cycles that were projecting a low for Aug. 26/27… with some indexes dropping as much as 10 – 13%.
The Aug. ’19 low fulfilled a unique parallel in the DJIA – producing another textbook example of wave equivalence…
In May/June ‘19, the DJIA sold off for 22 trading days, losing about 2,000 points before encountering intermediate support and bottoming.
In July/Aug ‘19, the DJIA sold off for 22 trading days, losing about 2,000 points before encountering intermediate support and bottoming.
Stocks also closely adhered to expectations concerning an important precursor index – the DJTA – and were led by an uncanny precursor stock – NFLX. That Aug. ’19 low ushered in the latest rally.
Web of Cycles
As discussed in recent months, an intriguing web of cycles comes into play in the first half of Nov. ‘19 (Nov. 11 – 15, ‘19 = greatest synergy). Many of these are related cycles – including 11 – 12 week, 22 – 23 week & 45 – 46 week cycles that all collide on Nov. 1 – Nov. 15. A peak at that time would fulfill:
11 – 12-week low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
22 – 23-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
45 – 46-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression.
29-week high (Oct. 1 – 5, ’18) – high (Apr. 22 – 26, ’19) – (high) Cycle Progression.
Golden Ratio related 36 weeks high-high (Jan. – Oct. ’18) / 58 weeks high – high (Oct. ’18 – Nov. ’19) – resulting in a 1.618/1 relationship.
~60-degree high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (if the high is set near mid-Nov.).
~90-degree rally (from diverse Aug. ’19 lows).
Daily cycles, daily LHRs and the intra-month trend setup should help hone that to a more precise expectation. The Weekly Re-Lay will update.
On a slightly broader time horizon, The NQ-100 & Transports (and others) have moved in ~7-month intervals since mid-2017. That has resulted in a ~7-month low (July ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Sept. ’18) – high (April ’19) – high (Nov. ’19) Cycle Progression – targeting Nov. ’19 for a multi-month peak.
A look at a few ‘secondary’ indexes reveals why that peak could [reserved for subscribers]…
Nov. 4 – 8 is also the week when the inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARCs will begin to surge – an advance that will last about 7 weeks. In the early going, when current price levels are well above those replacement calculator levels, the 21 MARCs act as support. But that can quickly change…
It is when current price action stalls (or begins to decline) – and those replacement levels surge to meet and ultimately exceed current price action – that the 21 MARCs become a negative influence. Depending on price movement in the first half of Nov. ’19, that negative influence could arrive as early as mid-Nov. (or wait until the first half of Dec. ’19).
3 – 5 year equity traders & investors could [reserved for subscribers]…”
Stock indexes remain on track for an overall ~2.5-month advance (from late-Aug.) into Nov. 11 – 15 – the ideal time (most synergy of cycles & timing indicators) for the next multi-month peak. Decisive upside price targets are corroborating this outlook and likely to be tested by Nov. 8/11. Where will equities likely peak?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.