Stock Trading: Indexes Reinforcing Overall Strength; AMZN & DJTA Fulfill Daily Sell Signals; Portend Impending Rebound
11/19/19 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update: “Stock Indices have fulfilled almost all of their upside potential (many have fulfilled all of their 2 – 3 month potential) – stemming from the late-Aug. cycle low – a low that should hold for 3 – 6 months or longer – and the early-Oct. secondary low. They have rallied into Nov. ’19, validating the potential for a multi-month high that would perpetuate a ~7-month low (July ’17) – low (Feb. ’18) – high (Sept. ’18) – high (April ’19) – high (Nov. ’19) Cycle Progression.
On a weekly basis, many indexes were able to sustain this rally into Nov. 11 – 15 – perpetuating an 11 – 12-week low-low-low-low-(high), a 22 – 23-week low-low-(high), a 45 – 46-week low-low-low-(high) and a 29-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. In order to fulfill that cycle, the Nov. 15 weekly close should be the highest weekly close and give way to a reversal lower this week. (Several other indexes peaked on Nov. 4 – 7.)
The potential for an imminent peak is also linked to the weekly LHR indicator in the DJIA. It projects a 1 – 2 month high to take hold, no later than Nov. 18 – 22. It has also been presaged by a key proxy stock – AMZN. As described previously, AMZN had a myriad of timing indicators arguing for an early-Nov. peak and reversal lower. One of those was (also) the weekly LHR… What did AMZN do in early-Nov.? According to the Weekly Re-Lay:
“AMZN rallied into Nov. 4 and peaked while testing its weekly 21 Low MARC and 21 Low MAC resistance as it attacked and held its weekly resistance (1813.5 – 1818.0/AMZN). It quickly reversed lower and turned its daily & intra-month trends down.”
AMZN perfectly fulfilled the timing for an intermediate peak, rallying into Nov. 4 and then reversing lower. It triggered a corroborating sell signal on Nov. 7 and dropped over 5% from the early-Nov. high – plunging right to its monthly support (1709.5 – 1721.0/AMZN) while dropping into mid-month…
The DJTA peaked on Nov. 7 and then sold off, neutralizing its daily uptrend multiple times. That remains the case and it would not turn that trend down – and confirm a multi-week peak – until a daily close below 10,807/DJTA.
Today’s action increases the potential that signal – along with confirming ones – should take hold tomorrow. The Transports spiked up to their daily 21 High MAC – and daily LHR and daily resistance – to begin today and then reversed lower, generating a daily 2 Close Reversal Combo sell signal on the close. That should spur a new 2 – 3 day sell-off… they could see a sharp drop into Nov. 21 or 22 – perpetuating a 49 – 51 day low (June 25) – low (Aug. 15) – low (Oct. 3) – low (Nov. 21/22) Cycle Progression. While that would not necessarily signal the end of this decline, it would likely usher in several days of congestion…”
Stock indexes are fulfilling projections for a strong advance from late-Aug. into Nov. 2019 – the latest phase of a ~7-month low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. That ~7-month cycle also portends an ensuing high in ~June 2020.
The DJTA triggered a 1 – 2 week sell signal on Nov. 5 – 7 and projects an overall drop into Nov. 21/22 when a 1 – 2 week low is likely. The DJIA, S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 corroborate that potential and could rally to new highs when Transports rebound.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.