Stocks Approach Natural Year Shift; Multi-Week Decline Should Follow. Watch NVDA.
03/18/24 – “Stock indexes are slowly forming respective peaks after fulfilling 1 – 2 year upside price targets at the same time the ~2-Year Cycle peaks… Individual stocks are showing far greater disparity with the ‘Magnificent 7’ providing a perfect anecdotal example of a topping formation…
Of those 7 leading tech stocks, high weekly closes were set on 12/15/23, 12/22/23, 1/26/24, 2/09/24, 3/01/24 (2) & 3/08/24… creating a significant range of divergence with only a minority of stocks spiking higher beyond the January/February ’24 time frame.
In other Dow Indexes, high weekly closes were set on Feb 23rd (DJCA) and Feb 9th (DJTA) – with that leading (?) Transport Index peaking first and reinforcing a topping phase that has been unfolding since December.
It remains focused on May 2024 for the next significant, multi-month low. That also overlaps the time when a ~4.25-Year Cycle next converges in primary stock indexes… The Transports provided a textbook daily trend scenario – a fractal of its similar monthly trend scenario – and confirmed that on Mar. 13 – 15.
That increases the likelihood for an overall (second consecutive) DJTA decline of ~13-weeks/~3-months/~90 degrees (the same duration as its preceding July – October ’23 decline) into May 2024 – when other multi-month cycles next bottom…
In the case of the S+P Midcap, it completed three successive advances of ~equal duration and an overall advance – from its late-September ’23 low weekly close – that is 1.618 times the duration and magnitude of its preceding decline. It did that while testing and holding attacked 3 consecutive weekly LHRs (2999 – 3028/IDX)…
This all coincides with the attainment of a major upside target in the stock that has driven the latest surge in stock indexes – NVDA.
That stock created a pair of range trading targets after bottoming near 110 in October 2022 and then setting a secondary low near 390 in October 2023. That range projected future range-trading parameters at 670 and again at 950 – a major upside objective. NVDA surged above 670 and then pulled back to it – in textbook range-trading action – setting a higher low at 662 (intraday) – 674 (low daily close) on February 21st.
That range support reinforcement projected a new surge to ~950, which was just fulfilled. That February 21st low also created a corresponding Intermediate LLH at ~950… which was ultimately tested as NVDA attacked its extreme upside target for 2024 (yearly LHR) at 902… and never closing above either of those upside extremes.
That stock has vacillated since reaching its upside targets but would not turn negative – on an intermediate basis – until a daily close below 840.
With ALL of these major upside targets being tested – several of them with uncanny precision – it ushers in a unique period of time…
Stock Market Reversals & the Natural Year
Natural Year 2023/2024 is coming to a close (on March 20/21, 2024) and is a likely time for a shift to occur in the overall equity market.
In March 2023, that Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance that has continued until just recently – a 360-degree move.
In March 2022, that Natural Year shift ushered in decisive peak that held for over a year. That peak was two 360-degree cycles ago.
In March 2021, that Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance with the corresponding low holding for almost 15 months.
In March 2020, that Natural Year shift timed the precise bottom in stock prices and began a new stock market advance that has now lasted ~4 years.
Will March 2024 time a shift to the downside?
The Natural Year ‘Opening Range’
The first month of the Natural Year – from March 20/21 until April 19/20 – has an oversized impact on key markets during specific years. 2024 is set up to be one of them!
That first ‘month’ leads into the Date of Aggression – a time that has had a sometimes-devastating impact on America and the globe. It is often a time of increased conflict or attacks – usually linked to corroborating cycles. INSIIDE Track has detailed that correlation for over two decades.
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In 2024, that period of time is expected to lead to extremes in some markets… and surprising events in the surrounding environment. (2025 could be more extreme!)…
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders can begin to lighten up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction. The remaining upside potential appears very limited as the downside risk/potential is increasing significantly. The Weekly Re-Lay will update changes and signals in the shorter-term trends.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are attacking multi-year upside targets as they approach the start of Natural Year 2024/25 – a time when a significant shift is expected in many markets. The first month of that Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times initial and revealing shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In the case of 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th. The key will be what occurs during that (expected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point. Reinforcing this, a leading stock – NVDA – just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could soon see a sharp correction.
What Would Trigger a Drop into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This be an Early Warning Sign for 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.