Stocks Completing (Divergent) Topping Phase; Project Sell-off into ~April 19th.
03/29/24 – “Stock Indexes, and many leading individual stocks, have been setting a series of divergent peaks since December 2023. More importantly, all of the primary indexes (DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100) and all of the secondary indexes (DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400) we follow have now fulfilled their 1 – 2 year upside price objectives.
The last of these 6 to accomplish that feat was/is the S+P Midcap – which has just attacked its multi-year upside targets:
3-06-24 – “If it is able to spike up to 3003 – 3034/ IDX, the S+P Midcap would complete a rally from its October ’23 low that is 1.618 times the magnitude of the preceding decline… and reach the intermediate LLH created by its October ’23 and January ’24 lows… 2980 – 3045/IDX is also where monthly resistance and the Intra-Month PLLR for March 2024 exist.”
This is what has been necessary to hone the timing for a potential (multi-month peak)…
Stock Market Reversals & the Natural Year
Natural Year 2023/2024 came to a close (on March 19, 2024) and is a likely time for a shift to begin in the overall equity market.
In March 2023, that Natural Year shift (first 30 days) began a new stock market advance that has continued until just recently – a 360-degree move.
In March 2022, that Natural Year shift (first 30 days)ushered in a decisive peak that held for over a year. That peak was two 360-degree cycles ago.
In March 2021, that Natural Year shift (first 30 days)began a new stock market advance with the corresponding low holding for almost 15 months.
In March 2020, that Natural Year shift timed the precise bottom in stock prices and began a new stock market advance that has now lasted ~4 years.
Will April 2024 begin a shift to the downside?
6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year traders and investors should be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a 2 – 3 month correction. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Global Indices
03/28/24 – China’s SSE 50 Index & Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied the first part of March and set multi-week highs, in line with previous analysis. This was the initial advance after they fulfilled projections for overall declines into late-2023/early-2024 and a multi-month low to take hold in late-Jan/early-Feb ‘24. (A related cycle recurs in 1Q 2025.)
That fulfilled a ~12-month high-high-high-high-(low) and a related ~6-month high-high-high-high-(low) Cycle Progression in China’s SSE Index. During the 1Q ‘24 rally, the SSE turned its weekly trend up while the HSI was unable to do the same. That could prompt a retest of the lows in the Hang Seng.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fulfilled the overall outlook for a new rally into 1Q 2024 – when a multi-month peak would fulfill ~4-year & ~2-year low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions.
That is also a full ~17-Year Cycle from its 1Q ’07 peak (divided into an ~8.5-Year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, recurring in 1Q ’24) which was exactly 17 years from its late-1989/early-1990 major peak… which was 17 years from its 1Q 1973 peak.
[In 2007, the Nikkei initially topped in the final days of February 2007. It then retested that peak in July 2007 and set a final peak… before losing ~60% of its value over the ensuing 18 – 20 months.]
The Nikkei is completing (or has just completed) a textbook 5-wave sequence from its 1Q 2022 low – now fulfilling ideal relationships to its wave ’1’ and ’3’ advances.
By spiking higher in mid-March 2024, the Nikkei has now completed (?) three rallies (waves ‘1’, ‘3’ & ‘5’) of near-equal duration with each lasting 23 – 24 weeks.
Wave ‘5’ (rally from early-Oct ‘23 low) matched the magnitude of the wave ‘3’ rally (January – June ‘23 rally) – adding more wave symmetry to the overall advance. In many diverse ways, the Nikkei is signaling ‘completion’ on a multi-year basis.
It also came within a few points of fulfilling its major upside range-trading target near 41,500 – 42.500. Since 2018, the Nikkei has consistently set multi-year highs and lows at 24,500 – 25,000 & 30,500, projecting a surge to ~36,000 – 36,500 and ultimately to 41,500 – 42,500/NK. It just reached 41,050.
Perhaps the most significant is that the Nikkei has just set new all-time highs, spiking above its late-1989 peak for the first time in 34 years.
The ~17-Year Cycle remains firmly in force!”
Stock Indexes attacked multi-year upside targets and are topping as they transition into a new Natural Year. The first ‘month’ of the Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times significant shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets, likely accelerating to the downside in mid-April.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th… the culmination of this transition period. The key will be what occurs during that (projected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point (and an initial low).
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame not long after (when the culmination of a second sell-off is projected). Several global indexes are reinforcing this outlook with the Nikkei adhering closely to the 17-Year Cycle… even as China/Hong Kong Indexes confirm 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottoms.
Why is a Stock Market Sell-off into ~April 19th so Probable?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.