Stocks Nearing Peaks; Triggering Exit Signals for Sizeable Correction!
03/16/24 – “Stock indexes have reached the point where all the indexes (three primary & three secondary) have fulfilled their 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year upside targets at the same time the Russell 2000 fulfilled its weekly trend pattern & signaled a top. The DJTA is leading a reversal lower…
Stock Indices are slowly forming respective peaks after fulfilling 1 – 2 year upside price targets at the same time the ~2-Year Cycle peaks. The DJIA set its highest weekly close on February 23rd while the S+P 500 & NQ-100 peaked the following week. Individual stocks are showing far greater disparity with the ‘Magnificent 7’ providing a perfect anecdotal example of a topping formation…
Of those 7 leading tech stocks, high weekly closes were set on 12/15/23, 12/22/23, 1/26/24, 2/09/24, 3/01/24 (2) & 3/08/24. In other Dow Indexes, high weekly closes were set on Feb 23rd (DJCA) and Feb 9th (DJTA) – with that leading (?) Transport Index peaking first and reinforcing a topping phase that has been unfolding since December.
It remains focused on May 2024 for the next significant, multi-month low. That also overlaps the time when a ~4.25-Year Cycle next converges in primary stock indexes.
In the interim, the DJTA confirmed the onset of a new decline in line with its daily & intra-month trend structures. The Transports provided a textbook daily trend scenario – a fractal of its similar monthly trend scenario – and confirmed that on Mar. 13 – 15.
That increases the likelihood for an overall (second consecutive) DJTA decline of ~13-weeks/ ~3-months/~90 degrees (the same duration as its preceding July – October ’23 decline) into May 2024 – when other multi-month cycles next bottom.
The other indexes concur with the DJIA, S+P 500, NQ-100 & S+P Midcap 400 all surging to their respective 1 – 2 year upside targets… at the same time the Russell 2000 retested its 1 – 2 year upside target (~2100/QR), fulfilling its weekly trend pattern.
In the case of the S+P Midcap, it has completed three successive advances of ~equal duration and an overall advance – from its late-September ’23 low weekly close – that is 1.618 times the duration and magnitude of its preceding decline.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders should be lightening up on long positions in anticipation of a sizeable correction. The remaining upside potential appears very limited as the downside risk escalates.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are attacking multi-year upside targets as they approach the start of Natural Year 2024/25 – a time when a significant shift is expected in many markets. The first month of that Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times initial and revealing shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In the case of 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th. The key will be what occurs during that (expected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point.
What Would Trigger a Drop into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This be an Early Warning Sign for 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.