Stocks Poised for Late-Oct Low; NQ-100 Projects Rally into Late-Nov.
10/21/23 – “Stock indexes declined after rebounding into mid-month… The Russell 2000 continues to show weakness, potentially warning of what could be on the horizon…
Stock Indices rebounded into mid-month (DJIA & S+P 500 set highs on Oct 17), fulfilling their intra-month uptrends while testing & holding weekly resistance levels… and reversing lower.
This latest sell-off comes after the NQ-100 peaked while perpetuating 6-week & 12-week cycles. Its Oct 12 high fulfilled a ~6-week/~42-day high-low (Mar 13) – low (Apr 25) – low (Jun 8) – high (July 18/ 19) – high (Aug 31/Sept 1) – high (Oct 12/13) Cycle Progression that recurs around Nov 23. The NQ-100 turned its weekly trend down on Oct 20.
The midpoint of that next ~6-week cycle is in early-Nov ’23 – when the DJIA is projecting a multi-week high (if a low is set in the coming days).
The Russell is providing a wealth of clues, as has often been the case since late-2021. A low in the coming week would complete a .618 retracement in time (19 wks up, 12 wks dn) while completing the third consecutive decline of 24 – 25 days (Oct 23/24) as well as a pair of daily Cycle Progressions.
A DJTA low in the coming week would complete more wave symmetry with successive declines of 12 weeks in duration. The Russell 2000 is also approaching downside price targets at the levels of its June & Sept ’22 lows (continuous-contract) near 1640 – the lowest lows since Nov ’20. Before that, however, it maintains the convergence of multiple downside targets that now coincide with intra-month support and downside targets:
— 10-04-23 – “That led to a second decline, which has now broken below its Jan ’23 low (major support for intra-year trend) and is nearing a range where multiple extreme downside targets converge (1669 – 1700/QRZ). The Russell 2000 continues to lead the downturns and reinforce the thinking a multi-year topping process has been unfolding since late-2021.
It could perpetuate the same divergence in the coming months, likely dropping to new lows during sell-offs (and into cycle lows) and rebounding to lower highs during rallies (and into cycle highs)…” —
The S+P Midcap 400 is nearing its 2 – 3 month downside target – and 2023 intra-year low – near 2350/IDX. It just turned its intra-year trend back down (and is lower than the 2022 close).”
Stock Indexes are poised to fulfill a myriad of downside objectives, wave targets, timing indicators and cycles in the coming week(s). That should usher in the projected 4Q 2023 advance – likely (ultimately) lasting into/through January 2024.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.