Stocks Projecting March 21 – 25th Peaks; NVDA Concurs; Sell-off into ~April 19th Likely.
03/20/24 – “The Natural Year
Once again, it’s the time of year to review a very critical and decisive period in our world. This period is being reinforced as several markets/complexes are on the verge of completing intermediate moves in the days surrounding March 19/20, 2024 (one day early in 2024, due to leap year).
The reason for this has to do with what is described as the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the Vernal Equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until Vernal Equinox 2025).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 19/20, ‘24).
However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons.
If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox, the first month of that year would end on April 19th. It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has already had an oversized impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in lockstep with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). March 2022 was another prime example as the ‘king’ in Russia went off to war to conquer his neighbor in Ukraine.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – usually from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year.
In 2024, many markets are set up for significant ‘change’ in the weeks surrounding March 19/20th… it is a pivotal time when several markets could see extremes on a multi-week or even multi-month basis…
Stock Indices are widening their divergence as the DJIA & S+P 500 surged to new highs – on the heels of Fed news today – and are attacking monthly resistance levels.
The NQ-100, in contrast, remains in congestion near its high and has still not (yet) generated a daily close above its month-opening high (18,623/NQM). Its daily trend pattern projects a spike to new highs with March 25th the ideal time for the next peak.
That is partially due to a newer ‘proxy stock’ – NVDA.
That stock created a pair of range trading targets after bottoming near 110 in October 2022 and then setting a secondary low near 390 in October 2023. That range projected future range-trading parameters at 670 and again at 950 – a major upside objective.
NVDA surged above 670 and then pulled back to it – in textbook range-trading action – setting a higher low at 662 (intraday) – 674 (low daily close) on February 21st.
That range support validation projected a new surge to ~950, which was recently fulfilled. That February 21st low also created a corresponding Intermediate LLH at ~950… which was ultimately tested as NVDA attacked its extreme upside target for 2024 (yearly LHR) at 902… and never closing above either of those upside extremes.
That stock has vacillated since reaching its upside targets but would not turn negative – on an intermediate basis – until a daily close below 840. Its daily trend pattern would also allow for a spike to new highs with daily cycles converging around March 25th.
The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap remain below recent highs but could also spike higher into their 1 – 2 year target ranges.
The DJTA, which set its highest weekly close on Feb 9th, is stuck in a ~2-month trading range and would not turn positive until a daily close above 15,983/DJTA.
It remains focused on May 2024 for the next significant, multi-month low. That also overlaps the time when a ~4.25-Year Cycle next converges in primary stock indexes.
As long as its mid-February ’24 peak remains intact, a second DJTA decline of ~13-weeks/~3-months/~90 degrees (the same duration as its preceding July – October ’23 decline) would also project a drop into May 2024 – when multi-month cycles next bottom.
In line with the topic discussed on page 1, stock indexes are also entering a unique period of time…
Stock Market Reversals & the Natural Year
Natural Year 2023/2024 has come to a close (on March 19, 2024) and is a likely time for a shift to occur in the overall equity market.
In March 2023, that Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance that has continued until just recently – a 360-degree move.
In March 2022, that Natural Year shift ushered in decisive peak that held for over a year. That peak was two 360-degree cycles ago.
In March 2021, that Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance with the corresponding low holding for almost 15 months.
In March 2020, that Natural Year shift timed the precise bottom in stock prices and began a new stock market advance that has now lasted ~4 years.
Will March 2024 time a shift to the downside?” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are attacking multi-year upside targets as they enter the start of Natural Year 2024/25 – a time when a significant shift is expected in many markets. The first month of that Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times initial and revealing shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In the case of 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets with spike highs forecast for now (March 21 – 25th).
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th… the culmination of this transition period. The key will be what occurs during that (expected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point.
Reinforcing this, a leading stock – NVDA – just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could soon see a sharp correction. March 25th should time a downward shift in NVDA and related stocks.
What Would Trigger a Drop into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This be an Early Warning Sign for 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.