Stocks Projecting Surge into Nov ‘22!
10/17/22 INSIIDE Track Update – “Stock indices are steadily advancing after creating a violent spike low on Oct 13 – in sync with the release of the Sept ’22 CPI and in fulfillment of the Oct 12 Weekly Re-Lay Alert analysis for a 30 – 60 minute spike low and reversal higher.
They still need to do more work to signal a larger-magnitude bottom. That ‘work’ could occur in the coming day(s) with the DJIA being one of the indexes leading the way higher. It has already neutralized its daily downtrend multiple times and needs a daily close above 30,430/DJIA to turn that trend up.
(The Russell 2000, S+P Midcap 400 & DJTA did not turn their daily trends down, during the drop into Oct 13, and have since re-entered their daily uptrends – corroborating the potential for a multi-week rally.)
At the same time, the DJIA (and DJTA) have closed above their declining daily 21 High MACs. When an intermediate reversal higher is unfolding, that signal is usually followed – within 1 – 2 trading days – by the direction of the daily 21 High MAC turning up.
For that to occur, the DJIA needs to rally above (intraday) 31,030/DJIA in the coming days. (Other indexes would need to rally above their Sept 19 highs on Oct 18, above their Sept 20 highs on Oct 19, etc. to turn their respective daily 21 High MACs up.)
In addition, the indices could also turn their intra-month trends up with daily closes above 30,455/DJIA, 3820/ESZ & 11,711/NQZ. The S+P 500, NQ-100 & Russell 2000 futures contracts all triggered new daily 2 Close Reversals higher today – reinforcing that a new rally is likely underway.
This comes after many stock indexes just perpetuated a ~16-week high (early-Nov ’21)-low-low-low-(low; late-Sept/early-Oct ’22) Cycle Progression that should prompt a 2 – 4 week – and possibly longer – rebound.
In a moderate scenario, the DJIA could rally about the same magnitude as it did in late-Feb – mid-April ’22… taking it back up to ~32,000/DJIA. That is also right where the monthly 21 Low MAC comes into play and where the descending weekly 21 High MAC will be in late-Oct and possibly early-Nov. It is where the DJIA would rebound .618 of its latest decline and is where the latest two weekly LHRs converge.
(The DJTA has seen two successive rebounds of ~2,500 points. A third, ~2,500 point rally would take it back up to ~14,500/DJTA IF the current lows hold.)”
Stock indexes sold off into the recurrence of an uncanny ~15-Week Cycle that projects a 1 – 2 month bottom by/on Sept 30, reinforced by several indexes dropping to new 2022 lows. More importantly, they have fulfilled 9 – 12 month downside wave structures and project a higher-magnitude rally in the coming month(s). A bottoming phase should now begin to unfold… and could lead to a 15 – 20% DJIA gain in 4Q ’22 (see Oct ’22 INSIIDE Track for details).
A final, potentially violent spike low on the Oct 13 CPI Report was expected, and fulfilled, and could lead to a multi-week or multi-month rally. Many other cycles & indicators concur.
On a broader basis, stocks are reinforcing longer-term analysis for a 1 – 2 year peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 6 – 12 month plunge in 2022. See related publications for additional analysis.
How Would Late-Sept ’22 Low Reinforce Overall 2022/2023 Outlook?
Why is Higher-Magnitude Rally Expected in 4Q ‘22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.