Stocks Reach New 2022 Lows; Fulfill Weekly Trends & Prepare for Bottom.
09/24/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices continue to decline after setting multi-week highs on Sept 12 – 16 and heading back to their mid-June lows in fulfillment of their weekly trend patterns… multi-week lows could be seen in the coming days…
Stock Indices set what were expected to be multi-week highs on Sept 12 – 16 and have since plunged with a majority of indexes now fulfilling their mid-Aug weekly trend signals that projected drops back to their mid-June lows. The outlier NQ-100 turned its weekly trend back down – reinforcing those signals.
(Those indexes rallied enough to twice neutralize their weekly downtrends and then reversed lower on Aug 16 without turning those weekly trends up… projecting a drop to new lows.)
They have sold off into the latest phase of a 14 – 15-week high-low-low-(low; Sept 21 – 30) Cycle Progression – one of the two most consistent NQ-100 weekly cycles over the past ~15 years – and the week following the NQ-100’s weekly trend reversal.
This is the most common time for a multi-week low.
This has also been the time when accelerated declines are most likely – during the final 2 – 3 weeks leading into a potential multi-month low (90/10 Rule of Cycles), so additional downside is still possible before a bottom is intact.
A low at this time would also complete a .618 retracement (in time) of the June – Aug ’22 rallies… Much like April 18 – 21, Sept 12 – 16 was when cycles turned back down and portended an abrupt sell-off… which has now taken place.
From a broader perspective, the intra-year trends remain down and most indexes tested their early-year lows (primary resistance for their intra-year downtrends) before peaking in mid-Aug. That reinforced the outlook for more volatile consolidation through September with a retest of the June lows possible in diverse indexes (based on their weekly trend patterns).
That is now being fulfilled with the DJIA & DJTA spiking to new lows while others (S+P 500, NQ-100, S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000) are slightly above their mid-June lows.”
Stock indexes have sold off into the recurrence of an uncanny ~15-Week Cycle that projects a 1 – 2 month bottom by/on Sept 30, reinforced by several indexes dropping to new 2022 lows.
On a broader basis, stocks are reinforcing longer-term analysis for a 1 – 2 year peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 6 – 12 month plunge in 2022. See related publications for additional analysis.
How Would Late-Sept ’22 Low Reinforce Overall 2022/2023 Outlook?
How High Could Oct ’22 Rebound Reach??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.