Silver Cycles Could Produce Initial Low
07/30/15 INSIIDE Track: Outlook 2015–2017
1Q ’16: The ‘Cru-ca-ble’
2015 has been targeted for a deflationary ‘trough’ with respect to many commodities. One of the most salient cycle convergences has just taken place – in Silver in July 2015. Gold shared many of the same cycles but Silver had the greatest synergy of those cycles – ranging from 11-Year & 7-Year Cycles down to 8-month & 4-month cycles (and ultimately, 4–8 week and even daily cycles).
The yearly cycles pinpoint 2015 as the year for a bottom. So, it is conceivable that a final spike low could stretch all the way into year-end. However, within the framework of that year, the greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles (and some precise yearly projections from previous lows) came into play in July 2015.
Gold & Silver fulfilled the primary aspect of this cycle – completing the projected declines from 3Q 2011, 3Q 2014 and Jan. 2015 – and fulfilled almost all of the downside price objectives in the process. [The one remaining downside target was a combination of wave objectives in Gold – at 1033–1045.0/GC.]
Now the question is whether they will fulfill the other aspect of that analysis – producing an important bottom and steadily building a base from which a new advance could take hold. As discussed many times before, 2016(‘The Golden Year’) is when I expect to see more bullish movement unfold in Gold & Silver… after a bottom & initial rally has unfolded.
One of the interesting aspects of Silver’s cycles is the fact they are so synergistic in Silver. In other words, themetal that is more prone to inflationary & deflationary swings – and less to ‘safe-haven’ buying or selling – is the one providing the strongest argument for a 3Q 2015 bottom. And, Silver is the one that just set a double-bottom – holding prior lows.
There is a LOT that Gold & Silver need to do to signal that a bottom is taking hold. Yes, they have fulfilled most of the downside targets & cycles. But, that does NOT automatically signal a bottom or a reversal higher. Several triggers need to be activated and multiple resistance levels exceeded in the coming months. That will be monitored – on an ongoing basis – in the Metals section of INSIIDE Track.
In the meantime, there are some corresponding factors that could make the next 6 months even more interesting (what does that Chinese proverb/curse say about ‘interesting times’?!).
As the 40-Year & 17-Year Cycles have already revealed, the coming months are expected to be a time of serious ‘testing’, when the ‘heat is turned up’ – financially (markets) & geopolitically. With all this talk about ‘testing’and ‘metals’ and ‘elevated heat’, one word could sum up the next 6 months…”