Nasdaq 100 Confirming Nov. 5 – 9 Cycle High; Intensifies Focus on Dec. 2018.
Nasdaq 100 Confirming Nov. 5 – 9 Cycle High; Intensifies Focus on Dec. 2018.
11/12/18 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update: Stock Indices continue to swing wildly while fulfilling short-term & intermediate-term expectations, sometimes with uncanny precision. The more likely scenario has been that equities would diverge with the Nasdaq 100 peaking on Nov. 5 – 9 – the latest phases of a 10-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a 5-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression…
The NQZ remains the weakest of the three and fulfilled both timing and price targets when it peaked on Nov. 8 (even as the DJIA & ESZ rallied well above their initial targets and resistance levels). It peaked right at intermediate resistance and its initial upside target (that included the weekly trend point, descending weekly 21 Low MAC and weekly resistance for this past week) and immediately reversed lower, plunging into Nov. 12.
The NQZ sell-off was expected to be deeper than that of the other indexes, reinforcing this overall scenario. That has been the case with the DJIA & ESZ approaching (but not yet reaching) their 50% retracement levels while the NQZ has already given back about 65% of its rebound. In addition, the daily 21 MACs are turning up in the DJIA but remain down in the NQZ (more divergence).”
As stocks swing wildly between short-term extremes, the intermediate outlook and the intra-year outlook for 4Q ’18 remains in force. Equities remain above decisive cycle lows set in late-October, while turning their weekly trends down. That pattern projects a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce followed by a more devastating drop below those (late-Oct.) lows. The outlook could turn the most negative in Dec. if an intervening (lower) peak is set in late-Nov./early-Dec.
The action of late-Sept. – early-Nov. ’18 is powerfully corroborating what is expected for late-2018/early-2019 – with the next significant decline projected to take hold in Dec. ’18.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.