Stock Index Buy Signals Maturing; Aug 15/16 Peak Projected; Then What?
08/13/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices continue to rally and are likely to spike higher in the coming week – all part of the projected advances from mid-June ’22 (when multi-week/multi-month cycles bottomed) and from mid-July – when multiple buy signals were triggered… into an expected multi-month peak in Sept ‘22. Futures traders could have exited 1/2 of long positions in e-mini SP futures w/avg. gains of ~$24,000/contract and be preparing to exit the other 1/2…
Stock Indices continue to move in lockstep with short-term cycles, trend signals, and corresponding support and resistance. They were projected to pull back on Aug 8 & 9 and then reverse higher, resuming their advances and next rallying into mid-Aug.
The NQ-100 was forecast to pull back to 12,943 – 12,986/NQU and then surge again.
The S+P 500 had related support at 4104 – 4115/ESU.
The Aug 6 Weekly Re-Lay described the ideal scenario for this past week in this manner:
“… the more likely scenario appears to be that stock indexes could pull back on Aug 8 and possibly Aug 9, before resuming their advances… The greatest (and tightest) synergy of daily support levels appears in the NQ-100 and could see it pulling back to 12,943 – 12,986… then quickly reversing back up. That would be the most bullish case for the next 1 – 2 weeks and could ultimately reinforce its intra-month uptrend.”
The Nasdaq-100 pulled back to 12,963/NQU (S+P hit 4113/ESU) and bottomed on Aug 9 – fulfilling the ideal timing and price for an early-week pullback. That provided another short-term opportunity for 3 – 5 day traders with stocks projected to enter a new rally into (at least) mid-month.
All of this action confirms mid-June cycle lows and validates the outlook for an overall advance into Sept ‘22. Stocks were forecast to enter a bullish multi-week phase on July 14, which has unfolded.
A rally into Aug 12 – 16 would fulfill the intra-month uptrends and perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle that includes multi-week lows on March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14… and should invert and time a related high on Aug 12 – 16. That would fulfill a related ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and project a subsequent peak on ~Sept 12 – 16.
One particular index, the Russell 2000, remains on track for a rally to range resistance at ~2085/QR.
Stock Indexes pulled back into Aug 9 and resumed their rallies, right on schedule. A spike high*** on Aug 15/16 should usher in a new 3 – 5 day peak.
1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows. 1/2 of these should have been exited at 33,400/DJIA, 4260/ESU (w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract) & 1970/QRU.
Risk (exit on) the other 1/2 on a daily close below the Aug 11 lows. Exit these at ***34,200/DJIA…”
Stock indexes are nearing fruition of the July 14 buy signals – projected to trigger a 3 – 4 week advance and as part of a larger overall advance. A brief pullback into Aug 9 was likely with the NQU expected to test and hold ~12,980 and then rally into mid-Aug. That just took place and triggered a new 3 – 5 day signal, projecting a rally into Aug 15/16. This would heighten the focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the second – which should culminate on/around Aug 15/16… the second ‘1/3’ of this overall scenario.
Can the July 14 Buy Signals Spur More Upside into Aug 15/16?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.