Stock Indexes Signal Peak; Exit Longs; 1 – 2 Week Sell-off Could Follow.
08/17/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices surged from Aug 9 into Aug 16, fulfilling the latest bullish signal (triggered when the NQ-100 pulled back to ~12,980/NQU and projected a new surge) and the prevailing intra-month uptrends… which have been portending rallies into Aug 15/16 (mid-month).
That completes the second ‘third’ of this overall advance, projected to last from mid-June (June 13 – 21 was identified as the convergence of multi-month cycle lows and the ‘ideal time from a cycle perspective’ for the low of 1Q – 3Q ’22) into Sept ‘22… with the greatest synergy of daily cycles in mid-Sept ’22…
There are diverse cycles, in various stocks and indexes, that are likely to create a series of divergent highs over the course of the next 2 – 4 weeks… the DJTA had a 20-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression emerging on Aug 15 – 19. A high during this week would also complete successive advances of 5 weeks each.
Other stocks and indexes still project a final high stretching into the middle half of Sept ’22…
As explained before, a rally into Aug 12 – 16 would perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle. Over the past several months, many indexes have set multi-week lows on the 12 – 16th of the month – coming on March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14. That created a ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression focused on Aug 12 – 16… and would set the stage for a subsequent peak on Sept 12 – 16 – a ~1-month low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
The anticipated rally into Aug 15/16 was expected to usher in [reserved for subscribers]…
1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows. 1/2 of these should have been exited at 33,400/DJIA, 4260/ESU (w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract) & 1970/QRU.
In the case of the DJIA, the other 1/2 should have been exited when it hit 34,200/DJIA this week. As for the other indexes, risk (exit on) the other 1/2 on a daily close below [reserved for subscribers]”
Futures trading involves substantial risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Stock indexes have completed the July 14 buy signals – projected to trigger a 3 – 4 week advance into Aug 15/16 before a 1 – 2 week correction becomes likely (all part of a larger overall advance). This has heightened the focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year. In between, a multi-week period of consolidation is expected with a likely 1 – 2 week sell-off following the projected Aug 15/16 high.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the second – which should culminate on/around Aug 15/16… the second ‘1/3’ of this overall scenario.
Will the Projected Aug 15/16 Peak Trigger New Selling?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.