Stock Market Poised for Sell-off; Aug 16 Peak Triggers Exit Signal in Longs.
08/20/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices did spike higher during the past week – all part of the projected advances from mid-June ’22 (multi-month cycle low) and from mid-July (multiple buy signals triggered) into an expected multi-month peak in Sept ‘22. A 1 – 2 week peak was projected for Aug 15/16 and took hold as the DJIA reached its second upside target for the mid-July buy signals. Futures traders could be out of 1/2 of long positions in e-mini SP futures w/avg. gains of ~$24,000/contract…
Stock Indices surged from Aug 9 into Aug 16, fulfilling the latest bullish signal (triggered when the NQ-100 pulled back to ~12,980/NQU on Aug 9 and projected a new surge) and the prevailing intra-month uptrends… which were portending rallies into Aug 15/16 (mid-month).
A peak on Aug 15/16 was expected to perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle that had timed multi-week lows on the 12 – 16th of the month (March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14) and was overdue for an inversion and resulting high.
A peak on Aug 15/16 would fulfill a ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and portend a subsequent peak on Sept 15/16 – a ~1-month low-low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Stocks precisely fulfilled that, peaking on Aug 16 as the DJIA was reaching its final upside target (and profit-taking level for the July 14 buy signal) at 34,200. That completed the second ‘third’ of this overall advance, projected to last from mid-June into Sept ‘22… with the greatest synergy of daily cycles in mid-Sept ’22.
Corroborating all that, the DJTA had a 20-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression emerging on Aug 15 – 19, when it would complete successive advances of 5 weeks each. It peaked on Aug 16…
1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows. 1/2 of these should have been exited at 33,400/DJIA, 4260/ESU (w/avg. gains of about $24,000/contract) & 1970/QRU.
In the case of the DJIA, the other 1/2 should have been exited when it hit 34,200/DJIA this past week. The Russell 2000 triggered exiting the second 1/2 on the Aug 19 close.”
Futures trading involves substantial risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Stock indexes completed the July 14 buy signals – fulfilling projected 3 – 4 week advances into Aug 15/16 and up to primary upside objectives. A 1 – 2 week correction is likely and is all part of a larger overall (expected) advance. This heightens the focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year. In between, a multi-week period of consolidation is expected.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the second signal – triggering long positions that precisely fulfilled upside targets in price and time – culminating on Aug 15/16… the second ‘1/3’ of this overall scenario. The final ‘1/3’ has now begun!
How Deep Could the Developing Correction Drop?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.