Stock Trading: Stocks Reach 6 – 12 Month Downside Targets; Signal Bottom.
06/25/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices are showing signs of bottoming in mid-June, during the most likely time for the latest intermediate low (June 13 – 20), and validating the outlook for a rebound into late-June/early-July. The DJIA has turned its daily trend up, providing initial confirmation to that scenario. This could also be the start of a multi-month rally into monthly cycle highs in Sept/Oct ’22 – when the next decisive peak is forecast…
Stock Indices are rallying after plunging into mid-month while fulfilling daily & intra-month downtrends and 2-Year Cycle parallels. That decline allowed the three primary indexes (DJIA, S+P 500 and NQ-100) to reach or near 6 – 12 month downside targets.
The DJIA attacked its most important level of resistance turned into support – the level of the Feb ’20 and Aug ’20 peaks at 29,200 – 29,600/DJIA – as the S+P 500 neared 3560 – 3610/SPX (2022 HLS, 2022 plunge = Feb/Mar ’20 plunge, Aug ’20 high).
The NQ-100 reached a myriad of downside targets and support at 10,700 – 11,100 (2022 HLS, multi-year range-trading support, 50% retracement of Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 advance, test of the Sept/Oct ’20 lows – a type of 4th wave of lesser degree). That was/is the most likely range for a multi-month bottom.
From a timing perspective, stocks extended this decline into ideal time based on the ~8-Month Cycle (that timed the early-Jan ’22 peak). If a trend is turning, a market will often decline for 2/3 of the cycle (~5.5 months; June 13 – 21) – leaving time for the ensuing rebound – into the final phase of the 8-Month Cycle – to be 50% of the decline (~23 weeks down/~11.5 weeks up).
The Nasdaq-100 corroborated that, fulfilling a 14 – 15 week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a related 28 – 29-week low-low-high-(low) Cycle Sequence.
It also completed successive 11-week declines – the ‘3’ and ‘5’ waves of what is likely a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ decline (Nov ’21 – June ’22 = ‘A’ wave). It could rebound to [reserved for subscribers]…
The impending monthly closing prices should again have a clarifying effect on what to expect in Sept/Oct ’22. The NQ-100 & Russell 2000 (the two indexes that completed major ‘5’ wave advances and hit/held multi-year range targets in Nov ’21) turned their monthly trends down at the end of May. That reversal usually occurs within weeks of an initial multi-month low.
Other indexes would not turn monthly trends down until monthly closes below 32,283/DJIA, 4116/SPX & 2326/IDX (SP Midcap 400). That is why the June 30 closing price should be revealing (helping to clarify what to expect during the anticipated Sept/ Oct ’22 cycle high). The DJTA cannot turn its monthly trend down until July 29, at the very earliest.
Stock Indexes are showing signs of bottoming with the DJIA turning its daily trend up. The NQ-100 could rally back to its early-June peak (12,973/NQU) and complete an Intra-Month V Reversal higher.”
Stock indexes are validating the potential for a mid-June low and the onset of a multi-month advance. They reached 6 – 12 month downside targets – fulfilling the overwhelming majority of downside potential for the first 9 months of 2022. Focus is slowly shifting to Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge to begin 2022. That is just the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21!
How Would a Mid-June Bottom Validate the ~8-Month Cycle?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Key Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.