Stocks Completing 4Q ’22 Rallies; NQ-100 Remains Weak Link in 2022!
12/07/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices remain positive on a 1 – 2 month basis but have pulled back after the majority turned their weekly trends up in recent weeks. This occurred as the DJIA was fulfilling ongoing projections for an overall advance into late-Nov/early-Dec and to at least 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles.
The one index that failed to turn its weekly trend up, the NQ-100, continues to lag the others and reinforce its overall bearishness (on a 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month basis). The NQ-100 needs a weekly close above 12,236/NQH to turn its weekly trend up and to elevate this rebound to the next higher magnitude.
It remains an outlier that could powerfully influence what to expect in 1Q ’23…
Recent action confirmed the Dec 1 peak as a 1 – 2 week top and projected pullbacks to weekly & monthly support, possibly lasting into mid-month. As long as the daily trends do not turn down during this correction, stocks would remain on track for another round of rallies to new 4Q ’22 highs (some could set lower highs)…
Several indexes (Russell 2000, DJTA, S+P Midcap 400) have just tested monthly support levels – initially fulfilling the downside price objective of their respective intra-month downtrends. In addition…
The S+P 500 has just pulled back to its own range-trading support – the highs of late-Oct/early-Nov near 3950/ESH. That is also where it found support in early-Sept ’22 and then resistance on Sept 19 – 21, after closing below that level. In late-Oct/early-Nov ’22, 3950/ESH also pinpointed a 50% rebound of the Aug – Oct ’22 decline. As a result, it remains pivotal.
That was proven on Nov 17, after the S+P had finally closed above 3950/ESH. It fell right back to that level and then subsequently rallied to new highs. It has again retraced to this level and found short-term support. It could spike down to ~3940/ESH – a 50% retracement of its early-Nov – early-Dec rally – before bottoming.
The DJTA has similar support near 13,600 and the Russell 2000 at 1790 – 1800/QRH.
The DJIA, ESH & NQH have only neutralized their daily uptrends once so they cannot turn the daily trends down until the Dec 9th close (at the very earliest). In order to do that, they would need to close below the lower of today’s low or tomorrow’s low (the low of the Dec 7/8th trading range).
That also pinpoints the next two days as being pivotal – when a pullback low is more likely.
1 – 2 month traders could have exited long positions in the DJIA (futures or related stocks; from Oct 20/21 at ~30,110 – 30,450) around 33,871/YMZ w/avg gains of ~$18,000/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock indexes have fulfilled projections for the largest advance in 2022 – led by the Dow, which was forecast to reach 34,200 – 34,600/DJIA in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22, on the heels of its Oct 20/21 buy signal. (See Oct & Nov ’22 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays for details.) They have reached that objective, ushering in a potential topping phase that could hold for 2 – 3 months. An additional spike high is likely in the coming ~week.
Most indexes fulfilled 9 – 12 month downside wave and price targets in Sept/Oct ‘22, projecting a subsequent higher-magnitude rally in 4Q ’22 – back to/toward their mid-Aug ’22 highs. Oct 13 & 20 buy signals corroborated! That has reached fruition with initial long positions triggering an exit signal and ushering in the time for a 1 – 2 month consolidation period.
When is New Multi-Week Sell-off Most Likely?
What Would Dec ’22 Spike High Signify?
How Would That Reinforce March ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.