Stocks in Bottoming Phase; Oct 27/30 = Likely Low… Project Future High in January 2024.
10/28/23 – “Stock Indices dropped to new intra-month lows after rebounding into mid-month (DJIA & S+P 500 set highs on Oct 17) and fulfilling their intra-month uptrends while testing & holding weekly resistance levels. The NQ-100 peaked a few days earlier (Oct 12), fulfilling a ~6-week/~42-day high-low (Mar 13) – low (Apr 25) – low (Jun 8) – high (July 18/ 19) – high (Aug 31/Sept 1) – high (Oct 12/13) Cycle Progression that recurs around Nov 23…
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 reached their weekly HLS levels on Oct 20, also projecting a spike low on Oct 23 – 27 or Oct 30 – Nov 3 (Oct 27/30 = ideal).
The Russell 2K continues to decline after fulfilling multiple criteria that projected an intra-year peak in late-July/early-Aug ’23 and the onset of a vulnerable ‘danger period’ in stocks. That was projected to be a final (lower) peak for weaker indexes and lead to a multi-month decline before a rebound into Jan ’24 – when another set of divergent highs is likely.
The Russell 2000 completed a .618 retracement in time (19 wks up, 12 wks dn) this past week. It has swung in ~90-degree/~3-month moves from its early-Feb peak to early-May low (close) to late-July/ early-Aug high to late-Oct ’23 (Oct 27/30).
This is also the time the DJIA fulfills a .618 retracement in time, a ~90-degree decline, & matches the duration of its Dec – Mar ’23 decline (92 days).
On a broader basis, stocks were expected to set 3 – 6 month (or longer) peaks in late-July/early-Aug ’23 and again in Jan ’24. In between, a lot of 1 – 3 week swings – and corresponding highs and lows – have been likely. That continues to be the case with many indexes confirming the late-July/early-Aug ’23 as their (likely) final peaks for the ‘B’ wave rebounds (from June/Sept ’22; ‘A’ wave lows).”
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of downside price & timing objectives, wave targets, and cycles in late-October ‘23. That should usher in the projected 4Q 2023 advance – likely (ultimately) lasting into/through January 2024. Price action needs to clarify when a low is intact and when a reversal/buy signal has been generated.
What Would Signal Multi-Month Bottom in Equities?
Is Another October – January Advance Destined to Unfold?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.