Stocks Positioned & Poised for New Multi-Week Surges; NQ-100 Signals Bottom.
01/05/23 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices have consolidated after their recent sell-off (into Dec 20). That decline took place right after the DJIA fulfilled ongoing projections (since late-Sept ’22) for an advance into late-Nov/early-Dec and to 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfilled the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles’ outlook.
During this sell-off, the primary indexes (except NQ-100) have neutralized their new weekly uptrends multiple times… but have not turned them down. That reinforces weekly cycles converging in the first half of Jan ’23 – all of which portend an intermediate low in this time period (potentially this week).
That is when multiple weekly cycles converge in indexes like the Russell 2000 (see accompanying HCP diagrams, first published in late-Sept ’22) & S+P Midcap 400… and when many of these indexes will have completed a normal reactive sell-off following their weekly trend reversals to up.
From the perspective of the NQ-100 – which has remained weak and often led sell-offs in the market – a low in Jan ‘23 would fulfill a ~30-week/~7-month low (Mar ’20) – low (Sept ’20) – high (Apr ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – low (Jun ’22) – (low; Jan ’23) Cycle Progression.
As of today, Jan 3, most indexes have retraced for as long as they rallied in 4Q ’22. The majority of stocks and indexes set their intraday lows on Sept 26 and then rallied into Nov 14/15 – an advance of 49 – 50 days (~7 weeks). Since then, they have corrected for 49 – 50 days (~7 weeks) leading into Jan 3/4, ’23.
In the process, the NQ-100 is poised to retest its late-Sept intraday low – fulfilling its weekly trend pattern. (The NQ-100 was the lone index that could not reverse its weekly trend up in 4Q ’22 – portending a drop back to the previous low.)
It set its lowest daily close on Dec 28, ’22 – the lowest daily close since Sept ’21, arriving right at major 6 – 12 month support (10,700 – 11,000/NQ) – so it has already set new lows by at least one measure.
Inversely similar to how 2022 started, stocks are showing signs that their declines are running out of steam (in early-2022, it was their advances running out of steam) and that another intermediate rally could soon take hold.
(In Nov ’21 – Jan ’22, stocks peaked, sold off, then rallied to a divergent peak in early-Jan ’22. In Nov ’22 – Jan ’23, stocks bottomed, rallied, then sold off to a potential divergent low in early-Jan ’23.)
As long as it does not generate a daily close below 32,654/DJIA, the Dow Industrials would not turn the daily trend down – reinforcing the potential for an intermediate bottom at this time… and a likely rally into Jan 13/17.”
Stock indexes fulfilled projections for large 4Q ’22 advances back to their Aug ’22 highs – led by the DJIA, which was forecast to reach 34,200 – 34,600/DJIA, fulfilling its Oct 20/21 buy signal (see Oct & Nov ’22 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays for details). Those 4Q ‘22 rallies generated new 4-Shadow Signals that auger new rallies in 1Q ’23.
A powerful convergence of weekly cycles corroborate that, pinpointing the beginning of 2023 as the time for a new 1 – 2 month rally to take hold. Weekly HLS indicators, weekly trend structure, and weekly cycles are projecting lows now – on Jan 3/4 ‘23. The recent declines are ‘running out of steam’ and poised to give way to a new round of strong rallies in Jan/Feb ’23.
What Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
How High Could (Expected) 1Q ’23 Rally Reach?
How Would That Influence March ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.