Wheat Could Be First to Signal Multi-Year Low
3Q ’16 Cycle Lows Project Major Bottom…
Intensifies Focus on Late-2010’s for Strongest Rallies.
06/30/16 INSIIDE Track: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are diverging… with Soybeans surging over 40% and producing the largest rally since 2012 (a 4-Shadow signal that portends a much larger advance after the next low). That fulfills much of the upside potential for 2016… but does not yet signal a top or a reversal lower.
On a near-term basis, these grains were all forecast (based on intermediate cycles discussed in last month’s issue) to see peaks in early-June, followed by sharp declines into late-June/early-July… On a continuous-contract basis, 1216.5/S is the yearly LHR for 2016 – the intra-year extreme upside target for this rally.
Soybeans are nearing this level, so the coming weeks could be decisive. This is also the time of year (~360-degree cycle) – in May–July – when highs have been seen in each of the past 4 years… and when the multi-year peaks of 2000, 2004, 2008 & 2012 were set. A similar peak is likely in 2016.
From a multi-year basis, Wheat is showing just the opposite – that it could be poised for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom in 3Q 2016… It remains the weakest grain – on a 3–5 year basis – but is completing a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression in 3Q 2016.
A low in the second half of 2016 (ideally around Sept. 2016) would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its Sept. 2009 bottom – the lowest low of the past 8+ years. Wheat is in the process of retesting that low as it completes a symmetrical ~8.25–8.5 year rally (late-1999–early-2008) followed by an ~8.25–8.5 year decline (early-2008–3Q/4Q 2016) – completing an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom.
Ultimately, that could lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977–1980 (an inflationary period in most markets).”
Wheat is poised for major, multi-year low in Aug./Sept. 2016 and the onset of an initial surge in 2016 – 2017. That should be part of an overall advance into 2020 – corroborated by the 40-Year Cycle. Events in 2016 are already increasing the focus for Food Crisis Cycles on 2019 – 2020… even as 2016/2017 is forecast to see shift from drought to flooding cycles that could intensify in 2019 – 2021. 2019/2020 is also when climate, crop, solar & seismic cycles collide.
The 4-Year Cycle Peak in Soybeans is expected to produce a corroborating peak in mid-2016 (May – July ’16; a precursor to a more dramatic peak in mid-2020) and reinforce this overall outlook for the late-2010’s. See http://40yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/INSIIDETrackSR201205Beans2012em.pdf for details and analysis on the last 4-Year Cycle Peak in 2012.