Wheat Poised for Major, Multi-Year Low
Overall Advance – from 3Q ’16 into 2020 – Likely;
Soybeans Confirming Mid-’16 Multi-Year Cycle Peak.
09/29/16 INSIIDE Track: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat remain weak after Soybeans surged into mid-2016 and attacked their extreme upside objective for all of 2016… and then quickly reversed lower, validating those upside targets and/or resistance levels. That surge fulfilled bullish expectations for 1Q & 2Q 2016…
One of those confirmation signals was the generating of a multi-year 4–Shadow (price) signal that portends a much larger advance after the next low. In the first half of 2016, Soybeans produced the largest rally since 2012 – creating that signal while showing that advance was part of a larger, developing bull market… not a bounce in a bear market.
Reinforcing that signal, Soybeans rallied from early-Nov. into mid-June (~7 months), exceeding the 2013/2014 rally (the longest of the past 3–4 years) from early-Nov. ’13 into late-May ’14. That provides a corresponding timing/cyclic version of a ‘4–Shadow’ signal as well.
Those signals are both a confirmation (that a Major bottom is taking hold) and a harbinger…Soybeans peaked in mid-2016 & perpetuated a ~4-year low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression – overlapping a ~360-degree high-high cycle that projected a 3–6 month (or greater) peak in May–July 2016.
(The next phase is in mid-2020, when a far more significant peak is likely.)
From a price perspective, the ideal upside target was/is the yearly LHR (intra-year extreme upside objective for 2016) at 1216.5/S. Soybeans peaked at 1208.5/S in mid-June 2016… attacking that extreme upside target…
Meanwhile, Wheat was poised for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom in 3Q 2016 – the completion of a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression. A low in the second half of 2016 (ideally around Sept. 2016) would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its Sept. 2009 bottom – the lowest low of the past 8+ years.
Wheat initially fulfilled that while completing a symmetrical ~8.25–8.5 year rally (late-1999–early-2008) followed by an ~8.25–8.5 year decline (early-2008–3Q/4Q 2016) – fulfilling an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom.
That could ultimately lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977–1980 (an inflationary period in most markets). Wheat’s recent low also perpetuated a 26-week/~180-degree low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
Though Wheat has fulfilled most of its downside potential, it has not yet signaled a reversal higher. At the very least, it needs a weekly close above 430.0/WZ to signal an intermediate reversal higher.
Corn remains weak & could drop as low as 290–300.0/C – its 2009 & 2010 lows and its multi-year ‘4th wave of lesser degree’.”
Soybeans validate analysis for a multi-year cycle peak in May – July 2016, the latest phase of 2-Year & 4-Year Cycles (that project future 1 – 2 year peaks for May – July 2018 & May – July 2020), and reversal lower. In contrast, Wheat is projecting a major, multi-year low in Aug./Sept. 2016 and the onset of an initial surge in 2016 – 2017. That should be part of an overall advance into 2020 – corroborated by the 40-Year Cycle. Food Crisis Cycles and Flood Cycles, intensifying into 2019 – 2021, reinforce this outlook.
The 4-Year Cycle Peak in Soybeans produced a corroborating peak in mid-2016 (May – July ’16; a precursor to a more dramatic peak in mid-2020) and reinforces this overall outlook for the late-2010’s. See http://40yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/INSIIDETrackSR201205Beans2012em.pdf for details and analysis on the last 4-Year Cycle Peak in 2012.